铁矿石行业研究报告

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global iron ore supply is expected to expand with the upcoming production of Simandou Iron Ore in Africa, while emerging economies such as India will drive demand growth. The iron ore price is projected to fluctuate within a reasonable range of $80 - $100 per ton in the next 3 - 5 years under normal circumstances [66]. Summary by Related Catalogs I. Iron Ore Production 1.1 Global Iron Ore Production - Since 2000, global iron ore production increased significantly before 2014 and has remained stable at around 2 billion tons per year since 2015. In 2024, global iron ore production was 2.33 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.9%. The compound annual growth rate from 2000 to 2024 was 3.6% [11]. 1.2 China's Iron Ore Production - From 2000 - 2013, China's iron ore production increased steadily due to the expansion of small and medium - sized mines. However, since 2014, production has declined due to environmental protection, safety inspections, and competition from imported ores. In 2024, China's iron ore concentrate production was 284 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.5%. The compound annual growth rate from 2000 to 2024 was 3%. The main production areas are North, Northeast, East, and Southwest China, with North China being the largest, accounting for 34.1% [12][15]. II. Iron Ore Trade 2.1 Global Iron Ore Trade - Before 2015, global iron ore trade volume increased rapidly, and has since remained stable at a high level. In 2023, global iron ore exports reached 1.711 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.8%. Australia and Brazil are the two major exporters, accounting for 76.3% of global exports. In the same year, global iron ore imports reached 1.638 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 5%, with China being the largest importer, accounting for 72% [17][22]. 2.2 China's Iron Ore Trade - Since the 21st century, China has become the world's largest iron ore importer, mainly importing from Australia and Brazil. In 2024, China's iron ore imports reached 1.237 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%. The compound annual growth rate from 2010 to 2024 was about 5% [26][27]. III. Iron Ore Consumption 3.1 Global Iron Ore Consumption - Global iron ore consumption has been growing steadily in the past 15 years. China, India, and Japan are the top three consumers, accounting for 58.9%, 10.3%, and 4.4% of global consumption in 2023 respectively. From 2010 to 2024, global iron ore apparent consumption increased from 1.958 billion tons to 2.437 billion tons, with a compound annual growth rate of 1.59% [31][33]. 3.2 China's Iron Ore Consumption - Affected by the domestic economic cycle, China's iron ore consumption increased before 2015 and has remained stable at a high level since then. In 2024, China's iron ore apparent consumption was 1.473 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.6%. The compound annual growth rate from 2010 to 2024 was 3.15%. China's iron ore demand is highly dependent on imports, with an import - to - consumption ratio of 86% in 2023. The most demanded iron ore type is sinter ore, followed by pellet ore and lump ore [37][38][43]. IV. China's Iron Ore Industry Competition - From 2003 - 2017, small and medium - sized iron ore producers expanded rapidly. After 2017, due to mine consolidation, many small mines exited the market, and the market share of large key enterprises increased from 18% in 2010 to 39% in 2023 [47]. V. Global Iron Ore Production Cost - Global iron ore production costs vary significantly among different mines. The top four global iron ore producers (Vale, BHP, Rio Tinto, and FMG) have low production costs and high iron grades. China's iron ore generally has low iron content and variable production costs ranging from 300 - 900 yuan per ton. Iron ore price fluctuations can adjust global supply. When the price is between $80 - $100 per ton, the global shipping volume is about 137 million tons [50][51]. VI. Steel Industry Overview 6.1 Steel Production - Since the 21st century, global pig iron and crude steel production have grown rapidly, with the growth rate slowing down after 2015. In 2024, global pig iron and crude steel production were 1.421 billion tons and 1.934 billion tons respectively. China is the world's largest steel producer, with pig iron and crude steel production of 893 million tons and 1.099 billion tons respectively in 2024, accounting for 62.9% and 56.8% of the global total. The main production areas in China are Hebei, Jiangsu, and Shandong provinces [53]. 6.2 Steel Consumption - In 2024, global crude steel consumption was 1.938 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. China's crude steel consumption was 989 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9%, accounting for 51.03% of the global total. Consumption outside China was 947 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%. Since the implementation of the "Three Red Lines" policy in the real estate sector in 2021, China's steel consumption structure has changed significantly, with a sharp decline in real - estate steel demand and an increase in export and manufacturing demand [61]. VII. Iron Ore Price Performance - Iron ore prices fluctuate with supply and demand. After the 2008 global financial crisis, prices rose rapidly due to strong demand from emerging economies and insufficient global supply. From 2011 - 2015, prices fell due to over - supply and weakening Chinese demand. After 2016, prices were volatile at a low level due to steel industry reforms. After the Vale dam collapse and post - COVID - 19 recovery, prices reached a record high. Since 2021, prices have been under pressure due to China's crude steel production cuts and real - estate policies. In 2025, the supply - demand situation is slightly loose, and the price is currently fluctuating around $100 per ton [65].