非农叠加议息会议，贵金属震荡等待指引

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a mid - term strategy of slightly bearish in a volatile market [4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The rebound of the US dollar exerts pressure on precious metals, and the uncertainty of the Fed's interest rate cut remains. The market expects a low probability of a rate cut in July [2] - The US economy shows certain resilience, with rebounds in retail sales and relatively stable inflation data [3] - The relationship between the US dollar and gold is the main logical line in the near term, and attention should be paid to the possible divergence between gold and silver prices [31] Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - Due to the rebound of the US dollar index, precious metals are generally weak but remain in a high - level volatile pattern. The silver follows gold passively, and gold moves in a seesaw relationship with the US dollar [11] Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - The US has reached multiple trade agreements, including with the EU, Japan, the Philippines, and Indonesia, and imposed various tariff rates [13][15][16] - According to CME "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping the interest rate unchanged in July is 97.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 2.6%. In September, the probability of keeping the rate unchanged is 35.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 62.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 1.6% [13] - Trump has repeatedly pressured the Fed to cut interest rates, including threatening to remove Fed Chairman Powell and criticizing the high cost of the Fed's office building renovation [16][17] Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.1 US Economy and Policy - US retail sales in June rebounded strongly, with a 0.6% month - on - month increase, mainly driven by auto sales. The US economy shows certain resilience, but the first - quarter GDP contracted [18] 3.2 International Economy and Geopolitics - The US has reached trade agreements and imposed tariffs on multiple countries, and the EU may impose counter - tariffs on US products [13][16][23] 3.3 Other Financial Markets - The improvement of the Middle East situation has led to a significant drop in oil prices, weakening US inflation pressure. The divergence in copper prices is affected by US tariff policies. The rise of the US stock market is supported by the resilience of the US economy and is beneficial to silver [24] 3.4 RMB Exchange Rate - The RMB has an appreciation trend, but in the long run, the exchange rate cannot form a continuous trend and thus cannot have a trend - forming impact on precious metals. However, short - term large fluctuations need to be monitored [29] Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in July is still weak, but there is uncertainty. Pay attention to the subsequent trend of the US dollar index and the possible divergence between gold and silver prices [31]