原油偏震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report [3][31] Core Viewpoints - OPEC+ maintains a stance of increasing production, but the actual release of crude oil production is slow, leading to a weak and fluctuating trend in crude oil prices. It is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see approach [3][31] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - Crude oil prices fluctuated. The SC2509 contract opened at 517 for the week, reached a high of 520, a low of 500, and closed at 512, with a weekly decline of 2.9 or 0.56%. In the short term, it shows a fluctuating pattern [4] Chapter 2: Analysis of Price Influencing Factors 2.1 OPEC: OPEC+ Maintains the Stance of Increasing Production - In June, OPEC's total production increased by 220,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 27.235 million barrels per day. Saudi Arabia's production increased by 173,000 barrels per day to 9.356 million barrels per day, and the UAE's production increased by 83,000 barrels per day to 3.05 million barrels per day [6] - On July 5, eight OPEC+ member countries announced an increase of 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations. OPEC+ has increased production for five consecutive months, with a cumulative recovery of 1.918 million barrels per day, and there is still 282,000 barrels per day left to reach the 2.2 million barrels per day production recovery target [6] - Next weekend, OPEC+减产 countries will decide on the crude oil quota for September. It is likely that they will complete the voluntary production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day and the UAE's production increase plan of 300,000 barrels per day in September. The actual incremental production in April, May, and June was lower than the plan. Attention should be paid to the subsequent actual production growth [3][7][31] 2.2 Russia: Gradually Implementing Production Cuts, Pay Attention to the Evolution of the Russia - Ukraine Conflict - In 2024, Russia's crude oil production was 516 million tons (about 9.9 million barrels per day). According to IEA data, last month, Russia's daily crude oil loading volume was stable at 4.68 million barrels, while the daily export volume of refined oil decreased by 110,000 barrels to 2.55 million barrels [8] - In June, Russia's crude oil and refined oil export volumes were at an abnormally low level, the lowest in the same period in five years. From 2024 to 2025, Russia's export volume showed a downward trend, raising questions about Russia's ability to maintain upstream production capacity [8] - The EU approved the 18th round of sanctions against Russia, and the UK lowered the price cap of Russian oil to $47.60 per barrel starting from September 2. As of July 6, 2025, the average daily export volume of Russian seaborne crude oil in the four - week period decreased by 3% compared with the previous four weeks, indicating a continuous weakness in Russian crude oil exports [8] 2.3 United States: Stable Production - As of the week ending July 18, 2025, the U.S. crude oil production was 13.273 million barrels per day, a decrease of 102,000 barrels per day compared with the previous week. As of the week ending July 25, 2025, the number of active rigs in the U.S. was 415, a decrease of 7 compared with the previous week, and the number of fracturing fleets was 168, a decrease of 6 compared with the previous week [9] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration predicted that the U.S. crude oil production will decrease to about 13.37 million barrels per day next year, down from about 13.42 million barrels per day this year [9] 2.4 American Production Increase May Dominate Future Supply Increment - IEA's June monthly report: It is expected that global production capacity will increase by more than 5 million barrels per day by 2030, reaching 114.7 million barrels per day. The global oil supply is expected to increase by 1.8 million barrels per day in 2025. The supply growth forecast of non - OPEC+ countries in 2025 was lowered from 1.5 million barrels per day to 1.3 million barrels per day, and it is expected that the supply growth of non - OPEC+ countries will reach 920,000 barrels per day by 2026 [16] - IEA's July monthly report: This year's global oil supply is expected to increase by 300,000 barrels per day compared with the previous forecast, reaching 2.1 million barrels per day [16] - OPEC stated that in 2025, the supply of countries outside OPEC+ will increase by about 800,000 barrels per day, lower than last month's forecast of 900,000 barrels per day [16] 2.5 Inventory: Decrease - According to OPEC's monthly report, preliminary data showed that as of April 2025, the commercial inventory of OECD's crude oil and liquids was 2.729 billion barrels, a decrease of 94.42 million barrels compared with the same period last year [17] - As of the week ending July 18, 2025, the total U.S. crude oil inventory was 821 million barrels, a decrease of 3.369 million barrels (- 0.41%) compared with the previous week; the strategic crude oil inventory was 403 million barrels, a decrease of 200,000 barrels (- 0.05%) compared with the previous week; the commercial crude oil inventory was 419 million barrels, a decrease of 3.169 million barrels (- 0.75%) compared with the previous week; the crude oil inventory in the Cushing area was 21.863 million barrels, an increase of 455,000 barrels (+2.13%) compared with the previous week [17] 2.6 Consumption: Weak - OPEC's forecast of global oil demand growth remains basically unchanged, maintaining the expected growth of 1.29 million barrels per day in 2025. The IEA report showed that the recent oil demand has slowed down significantly, and the average oil demand growth forecast for 2025 was lowered to 704,000 barrels per day, and the average oil demand growth forecast for 2026 was lowered to 722,000 barrels per day [21] - As of June 27, the U.S. refined oil processing fee was $346 per ton, while the processing fee of Asian refineries was low at $170 per ton. In the week of July 24, the average comprehensive profit of Shandong independent refineries processing imported crude oil was 313.57 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 5.06% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.79% [22] - In April, the operating rate of U.S. refineries was 88.00%, a month - on - month increase of 0.94%; the operating rate of European refineries was 81.90%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.10%. As of the week ending July 18, 2025, the crude oil processing volume of U.S. refineries was 16.936 million barrels per day, an increase of 87,000 barrels per day compared with the previous week, and the operating rate of U.S. refineries was 95.50%, an increase of 1.6% compared with the previous week. As of July 24, 2025, the operating rate of major refineries in China was 81.21%, the same as the previous week. As of July 23, 2025, the operating rate of Shandong local refineries was 50.04%, an increase of 0.88% compared with the previous week [26] Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - Next weekend, OPEC+减产 countries will decide on the crude oil quota for September. It is likely that they will complete the voluntary production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day and the UAE's production increase plan of 300,000 barrels per day in September. The actual incremental production in April, May, and June was lower than the plan. Attention should be paid to the subsequent actual production growth. If the production returns to the full - quota level, there will still be pressure on crude oil prices. Overall, OPEC+ maintains the stance of increasing production, the actual release of crude oil production is slow, and the crude oil price shows a weak and fluctuating trend. It is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see approach [3][31]