Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - PTA device maintenance plans are generally limited, and new devices are expected to be put into production, so TA supply tends to be loose; downstream polyester is reducing its load, but the room for further decline in polyester load may be limited, and PTA supply and demand may remain near balance. - The tight spot situation of PX has been alleviated. Affected by the overall correction of the commodity market and the weakening of cost - side support, the PX futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly. - Crude oil is fluctuating. Overall, PTA will mainly fluctuate, and it is advisable to wait and see [2][16]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Chapter 1: Market Review - The PTA09 contract fluctuated weakly. The weekly opening price of the 09 contract was 4704, the highest was 4810, the lowest was 4672, and the closing price was 4744, with a weekly increase of 44 or 0.94% [3]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Analysis of Price Influencing Factors - 2.1 PX Supply - Demand Marginal Improvement - In terms of PX production capacity, the commissioning of new domestic PX production capacity in 2024 is gradually coming to an end. In 2024, only Yulongdao has a new production capacity of 3 million tons, and there is no new project commissioning expected in 2025. From January to June 2025, the domestic PX output was 18.53 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.32%; from January to May 2025, the domestic PX imports were 3.736 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.7%. - On the supply side, the operating rate of the Chinese PX industry decreased by 1.2% to 79.9%, which is at a neutral level in the same period over the years. This week, Tianjin Petrochemical carried out planned maintenance, and Shenghong Refining & Chemical reduced its load. The Asian PX industry's operating rate decreased by 0.7% to 72.9%, which is at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. - This week, the supply - demand situation of PX has improved marginally. The tight spot situation of near - term PX has been alleviated. Affected by the overall correction of the commodity market and the weakening of cost - side support, the PX futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [5][6]. - 2.2 High PTA Supply Pressure - From January to June 2025, the domestic PTA output was 35.93 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.02%. - On the supply side, there was no news of device changes this week. The PTA industry's operating rate was 79.7%, which is at a relatively high level in the same period over the years. The 3.2 million - ton new production device of Sanfangxiang is currently under commissioning. - In the third quarter, the overall PTA device maintenance plan is limited, and new devices are expected to be put into production. Under the expectation of downstream polyester production reduction, the PTA supply - demand expectation is weakening, and there is an overall expectation of inventory accumulation. In July, although some PTA devices are under maintenance, there is an expectation of downstream production reduction, and the PTA supply - demand is gradually becoming loose, with an overall expectation of inventory accumulation. In August, some PTA devices have maintenance plans, but there is an expectation of new PTA device commissioning. The room for further decline in polyester load may be limited, and the overall PTA supply - demand is near balance [10]. - 2.3 Weakening Polyester Demand - From January to June 2025, the domestic polyester output was 39.1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.43%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative net export of polyester products was 5.796 million tons (accounting for 17.9% of the polyester output in the same period), a year - on - year increase of 18.8%. - The operating rate of the downstream polyester industry increased by 0.4% to 88.7%, among which the operating rate of the filament industry increased by 0.8% to 91.3%. This week, the increase in polyester load was mainly affected by the restart of staple fiber and filament devices. - The raw material inventory days of terminal texturing and weaving factories reached a new low this year, and enterprises have started to replenish raw material inventory, which has promoted the initial inflection point of the terminal operating rate. The rigid demand replenishment of texturing and weaving factories combined with the increase in speculative inventory has jointly alleviated the filament inventory pressure. Although the cash flow has recovered, it is still at a low level, and the reduction of filament inventory pressure may delay the production reduction rhythm of the polyester link [13]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - PTA device maintenance plans are generally limited, and new devices are expected to be put into production, so TA supply tends to be loose; downstream polyester is reducing its load, but the room for further decline in polyester load may be limited, and PTA supply and demand may remain near balance. - The tight spot situation of PX has been alleviated. Affected by the overall correction of the commodity market and the weakening of cost - side support, the PX futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly. Crude oil is fluctuating. Overall, PTA will mainly fluctuate, and it is advisable to wait and see [16].
PTA：供需偏平衡
Ning Zheng Qi Huo·2025-07-28 10:31