中国军工全球竞争优势或推动军贸份额扩张

Group 1 - The global military expenditure is continuously increasing, with a projected total of $2.68 trillion by 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.3% from 2015 to 2024 [10] - The weakening of the dollar system is diminishing the United States' control over global military trade, with the U.S. expected to hold a 47% share of the global military trade market in 2024 [11] - Russia's military trade market share has collapsed to 7% due to sanctions and conflicts, creating an opportunity for China to fill the gap [16] Group 2 - China has transitioned from a military trade deficit to a surplus, with the share of military trade rising from an average of 2.17% from 1996 to 2009 to a significant increase from 2010 to 2024 [18] - The completeness of China's military manufacturing has significantly improved, nearing that of Germany and France, particularly in shipbuilding, enhancing export potential [21][24] - The military-civilian integration strategy in China is a key advantage, supported by practical validation through real combat scenarios, which enhances the reliability of Chinese military technology [31][33] Group 3 - The military trade structure has shifted, with China increasing exports to "Belt and Road" countries while U.S. and Russian exports to these regions have declined [25] - The visible comparative advantage (RCA) index indicates that China's shipbuilding industry has a strong global competitive edge, surpassing Germany and France, while the aviation and weapon sectors still have room for improvement [33][36]