固收、宏观周报：大宗涨价，债市有所调整-20250728

Report Overview - Report Date: July 28, 2025 - Analyst: Zhang Hesheng - Contact Information: Tel: 021 - 53686158; E - mail: zhanghesheng@shzq.com; SAC No.: S0870523100004 [1] Industry Investment Rating - The report continues to be bullish on the bond market and A - share structural opportunities, but no specific industry investment rating is provided [12] Core Viewpoints - Continue to be optimistic about the bond market and A - share structural opportunities. The rapid price increase of commodities such as coal, steel, and building materials is due to the dual positive catalysts of the increasing expectation of supply - side reform and the incremental demand from the Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Project. The bond market is not substantially affected by the commodity price increase, and the short - term adjustment provides an opportunity to go long on the bond market. In the stock market, the Politburo meeting at the end of July may introduce some growth - stabilizing policies, and the upcoming Sino - US economic and trade talks in Sweden are expected to keep investors' risk appetite at a high level. There are still investment opportunities in structural sectors such as rare earths, artificial intelligence, innovative drugs, and commodities [12] Market Performance Summary Stock Market - US Stocks: In the past week (July 21 - 27, 2025), the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average changed by 1.02%, 1.46%, and 1.26% respectively, and the Nasdaq China Technology Index changed by 1.91% [2] - Hong Kong Stocks: The Hang Seng Index changed by 2.27% in the same period [2] - A - Shares: The Wind All - A Index rose 2.21%. Among them, the CSI A100, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI 2000, and Wind Micro - cap stocks changed by 2.29%, 1.69%, 3.28%, 2.36%, 1.81%, and 3.63% respectively. In terms of sector styles, both blue - chip and growth stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets rose, and the North Securities 50 Index changed by 2.85% [3] - Industry Performance: Among the 30 CITIC industries, 4 industries declined and 26 industries rose. The leading industries were coal, steel, non - ferrous metals, building materials, and construction, with weekly gains of more than 6%. In terms of ETF performance, rare metals, coal, building materials, non - ferrous metals, and Hong Kong securities performed well, with weekly gains of more than 7% [4] Bond Market - Domestic Interest - Rate Bonds: In the past week (July 21 - 27, 2025), the 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract fell 0.56% compared to July 18, 2025. The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond increased by 6.72 BP to 1.7324% compared to July 18, 2025. The yield curve became steeper [5] - Funding Price: As of July 25, 2025, R007 was 1.6937%, up 18.65 BP from July 18, 2025; DR007 was 1.6523%, up 14.56 BP, and the spread between the two increased. The central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 70.5 billion yuan in the past week [6] - Bond Market Leverage: The bond market leverage level increased. The 5 - day average of the inter - bank pledged repurchase volume increased from 7.24 trillion yuan on July 18, 2025, to 7.70 trillion yuan on July 25, 2025 [7] - US Treasury Bonds: In the past week (July 21 - 27, 2025), the long - term US Treasury bond yields decreased while the short - term yields increased. As of July 25, 2025, the 10 - year US Treasury bond yield decreased by 4 BP to 4.40%. The yield curve became flatter [8][9] Foreign Exchange and Commodities - US Dollar: The US dollar index fell 0.80% in the past week (July 21 - 27, 2025). The US dollar exchange rates against the euro, pound, and yen changed by - 1.00%, - 0.19%, and - 0.76% respectively. The US dollar exchange rates against the offshore and onshore RMB decreased by 0.18% and 0.12% respectively [10] - Gold: The international gold price fell, with the London gold spot price falling 0.35% to $3343.5 per ounce and the COMEX gold futures price falling 0.61% to $3329.1 per ounce. The domestic gold price rose, with the Shanghai gold spot price rising 0.09% to 774.21 yuan per gram and the futures price rising 0.01% to 774.70 yuan per gram [10] Trade Negotiation Progress - The US has reached trade agreements with the Philippines, Japan, and the EU. Sino - US trade talks will be held in Sweden from July 27 - 30, 2025, and the follow - up progress is worthy of attention [11]