Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Copper: On Friday night, the copper price opened low and moved lower, with the main contract of Shanghai copper breaking below the 79,000 yuan mark. The market sentiment turned cold rapidly, and most previously rising commodities saw a downward trend with reduced positions. The social inventory of electrolytic copper on Monday was 125,000 tons, up 3,200 tons from last Thursday. Although the short - term commodity market is weak, Shanghai copper is relatively resistant to decline. Continued attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 79,000 yuan mark [5]. - Aluminum: The aluminum price declined on Friday night and fluctuated on Monday, with the position volume continuously decreasing. Affected by the weak market, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum on Monday was 514,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from last Thursday. With the short - term market weakening and inventory accumulation in the aluminum industry, the aluminum price is expected to be weak. Attention should be paid to the support of the 40 - day moving average [6]. - Nickel: The nickel price soared and then dived on Friday night, remaining weak on Monday with a continuous decline in position volume. Affected by the market, attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 122,000 yuan level [7]. 3. Industry Dynamics - Copper: First Quantum's copper production in Q2 2025 was 91,000 tons, a quarterly decline of 8.7% and a year - on - year decline of 11.3%, mainly due to the production decline at Kansanshi. The company's 2025 copper production guidance is 380,000 - 440,000 tons. On July 28, the social inventory of electrolytic copper was 125,000 tons, up 3,200 tons from July 24 and down 500 tons from July 21 [9]. - Aluminum: On July 28, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 514,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from July 24 and up 34,000 tons from July 21 [10]. - Nickel: On July 28, Mysteel reported that for the Shanghai nickel market, the mainstream reference contract was the SHFE nickel 2508 contract. The mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was + 2,100 yuan/ton, with a price of 124,210 yuan/ton; that of Russian nickel was + 550 yuan/ton, with a price of 122,660 yuan/ton; that of Norwegian nickel was + 3,600 yuan/ton, with a price of 125,710 yuan/ton; and that of nickel beans was - 900 yuan/ton, with a price of 121,210 yuan/ton [11]. 4. Related Charts - Copper: The report includes charts such as copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][14][15]. - Aluminum: The charts involve aluminum basis, monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina trend, and alumina inventory [24][26][28]. - Nickel: The charts include nickel basis, monthly spread, LME inventory, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [35][37][39].
盘面转弱，有色弱势运行
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-07-28 11:22