宏观利率周报：股债“跷跷板”分流资金，关注重要会议及中美谈判-20250728

Group 1: Economic Outlook - July global PMI fell short of expectations, indicating limited export growth in the second half of the year[1] - Manufacturing sector remains weak due to production restrictions, with economic growth in the first half providing a stable foundation[1] - The next round of growth stabilization measures is expected in Q4, with no need for premature tightening of monetary policy[1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The "seesaw" effect between stock and bond markets continues, with funds being diverted from the bond market as equity markets gain momentum[1] - Major commodity exchanges issued risk warnings, leading to a broad decline in commodity futures, which may help stabilize interest rates[1] - The Shanghai Composite Index briefly surpassed 3600 points, reflecting a positive market sentiment[1] Group 3: Key Developments - The third batch of 690 billion yuan in special government bonds has been allocated to support consumption upgrades[8] - The issuance of replacement bonds has reached 90% of the annual quota, with 1.8 trillion yuan issued by the end of June[8] - The insurance industry has lowered the maximum guaranteed interest rate for new products to 2.0%[9] Group 4: International Context - The U.S. and EU reached a 15% tariff agreement, with the EU committing to invest an additional $600 billion in the U.S.[12] - The EU has paused interest rate cuts after eight consecutive reductions, citing "exceptional uncertainty" in the current environment[12] - India's trade agreement with the UK will eliminate tariffs on 99% of Indian exports to the UK[12]