册 究 所 行业轮动ETF策略周报 (20250908-20250914) 证券研究报告·策略周报 证券分析师:张一 S0670524030001 010-83270999-97050 zhangyi@cnht.com.cn 2025年9月15日 证券分析师:李杜 S0670524040001 021-50800937 l idu@cnht.com.cn 策略说明: 20250908-20250912期间,策略累计净收益约3.12%;相对于沪深300ETF的超额收益约 . 为1.65%。2024年10月14日至今,策略样本外累计收益约25.17%;相对于沪深300ETF累 计超额约6.13%。 数据来源:wind数据库,全融街证券研究所 30.00% 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5. 00% 0. 00% -5.00% -10.00% -15.00% 行业轮动上| 克略 图表3:行业轮动ETF策略建仓以来累计收益率(20241014-20250912) · 金融街证券研究所基于策略报告《行业轮动下的策略组合报告:基于行业风格延续和 切换视角下的定量分析》(20241007)和《股票 ...

行业研究 |计算机 证券研究报告/行业研究/行业深度 2025 年 09 月 09 日 业绩拐点已现，行情回暖+AI 赋 能，共筑智能科技行业高景气度 强于大市（维持） 行业指数与大盘走势对比 智能科技行业 2025H1 财报总结专题 研报摘要 行情回顾：年初以来（截止 2025-8-31），此前我们在报告中重点推荐的 人工智能 ETF、金融科技 ETF、游戏 ETF 均表现出色。1）人工智能主题 ETF：年初至今创业人工智能 ETF 华宝（159363）涨幅高达 77.86%，人工 智能 ETF（515980）涨幅高达 74.59%，科创 AIETF（588790）涨幅高达 66.57%， 人工智能板块成为年初以来涨幅最好的板块之一，且 3 年以来分位数多处 于 90%以上的高位，同时资金对人工智能主题 ETF 青睐有加，创业人工智 能 ETF 华宝（159363）近 1 月资金净流入 17.02 亿元，人工智能 ETF（515980） 近 1 月净流入 19.76 亿元，大规模资金流入进一步推升板块热度，充分体 现了人工智能领域在技术创新与产业应用推进下的高景气度，以及市场对 人工智能产业长期发展前景的坚 ...

恒泰证券 HENGTAI SECURITIES 研究所 行业轮动ETF策略周报 (20250901-20250907) 证券研究报告·策略周报 证券分析师:张一 S0670524030001 010-83270999-97050 zhangyi@cnht.com.cn 证券分析师:李杜 S0670524040001 021-50800937 l idu@cnht. com. cn 策略说明: 数据来源:wind数据库,恒泰证券研究所 数据来源:wind数据库,恒泰证券研究所 *回测时不考虑择时信号,采用100%权益仓位、等权加权构建组合 风险提示:市场风格发生周频以内的快速切换;部分ETF贴水率异常升高。 恒泰证券研究所基于策略报告《行业轮动下的策略组合报告:基于行业风格延续和切 · 换视角下的定量分析》(20241007)和《股票型ETF市场概览与配置方法研究:以基于 行业轮动策略的ETF组合为例》（20241013）,构建基于行业和主题ETF的策略组合。 策略更新: | 基金代码 | ETF 名称 | ETF市值 | 持有情况 | 重仓申万 行业 | 周度择时信号 日度择时信号 | | | --- | - ...

ETF 市场流动性动态报告（20250901～20250907） 市场行情 基金研究 | 2025 年 09 月 08 日 证券研究报告 / 基金研究 2025 年 09 月 08 日 科创 50 回调，黄金 ETF 上涨 上周，我国十年期国债收益率较上上周基本持平，周五录得 1.83%。美国十年期 国债收益率下行，周五录得 4.10%。 上周，上证指数（-1.18%），上证 50（-1.15%），沪深 300（-0.81%），中证 500（-1.85%），中证 1000（-2.59%），中证 2000（-1.72%），创业板指（+2.35%）， 科创 50（-5.42%）。申万一级行业中，电力设备（+7.39%），综合（+5.38%）领涨； 国防军工（-10.25%），计算机（-7.27%）跌幅较大。 上周，沪深两市日均成交金额 25672 亿元，较上上周数据下降约 13%。上周五， 两融业务融资余额录得约 22713 亿元，创历史新高。 ETF 市场概况 上周，整体 ETF 市场申赎净流入约 477 亿元。其中，债券型 ETF 净流入约 113 亿元；跨境型 ETF 净流入约 134 亿元。股票型 ETF ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the chemical industry [2] Core Views - The macro industry data shows that the PMI for August is 49.4%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The main raw material purchasing price index increased by 1.8 percentage points compared to last month. The PPI for chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing has seen an expanded decline, while the oil and gas extraction industry remained stable [2][29] - The report highlights that the chemical industry is undergoing a competitive landscape optimization due to tightened policies, with a focus on energy efficiency standards and carbon emission evaluations set to be implemented from September 1, 2025 [2][50] - The report suggests focusing on specific sub-sectors such as SW pesticides, SW fluorochemicals, SW potash fertilizers, SW coal chemicals, SW food and feed additives, and SW oilfield services based on net profit growth rates and PE valuations [2][56] Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Data - The PMI for August is 49.4%, up by 0.1 percentage points from last month. The main raw material purchasing price index is at 53.3%, up by 1.8 percentage points. The PPI for chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing is at -6.5%, with an expanded decline of 0.4 percentage points [29] - Fixed asset investment in the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing sector has a cumulative year-on-year decline of 4.7%, while the chemical fiber manufacturing sector shows an increase of 11.1% [29] Industry Policies - The report discusses the implementation of energy efficiency standards and carbon emission evaluations, which will lead to the elimination of substandard products by the end of 2025 [50][53] - The national carbon market is expected to accelerate the elimination of outdated production capacity and reshape the market competition landscape [50] Sub-sector Performance - The chemical industry has seen a divergence in performance, with sectors like pesticides, specialty chemicals, and coatings experiencing growth in revenue, profit, and import-export figures, while basic chemicals and fertilizers show mixed results [55][61] - The report emphasizes the importance of adhering to energy efficiency benchmarks for various chemical products, with specific deadlines for compliance [56] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the Penghua CSI Sub-sector Chemical Industry Theme ETF (159870.SZ) as a key investment vehicle [2][19] - It suggests monitoring specific sub-sectors that have shown consistent net profit growth, including SW fluorochemicals and SW potash fertilizers [61]

- The report tracks the profitability data of listed companies in various industries for Q2 2025, highlighting that sectors like agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery are in a relatively high prosperity and low valuation range[2] - The report shows that industries such as communication, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, non-ferrous metals, and non-bank finance have high ROE (TTM) data in the past decade, while industries like construction decoration, real estate, banking, light industry manufacturing, biomedicine, computer, and power equipment are at low levels[2] - The report indicates that the ROE (TTM) data for industries such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, electronics, non-bank finance, and non-ferrous metals are on the rise year-on-year, while industries like real estate, coal, and petroleum and petrochemical have seen significant declines[2][3] - The report highlights that in the secondary industries, sectors like liquor, animal husbandry, white goods, insurance, and oil and gas extraction have high ROE (TTM) data, with liquor industry at 27.02%, animal husbandry at 21.91%, and white goods at 19.92%[3] - The report also notes that the median ROE (TTM) data for all secondary industries is 5.90%[3] - The report identifies that sectors such as animal husbandry, energy metals, feed, games, motorcycles and others, and marine equipment have shown significant year-on-year increases in ROE data over the past two quarters[3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - ETFs are becoming a "super hub" connecting the market and investors, and their development is a major trend. Analyzing the penetration of ETF holdings and trading helps understand the interaction between ETFs and corresponding stocks [1]. - The impact of ETFs on the equity market can be divided into four quadrants based on ETF持仓占比 and ETF成交占比, which reflect the holding and trading influence of ETFs on stocks respectively [2][10]. - ETFs show strong configuration and trading willingness in traditional industries such as banking, coal, and non - bank finance. Market preference may be shifting towards low - valuation, high - dividend sectors [2][3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. ETF's Influence Mechanism on the Equity Market - The influence of ETFs on the equity market is divided into four scenarios according to the low/high of ETF持仓占比 and ETF成交占比: weak influence, stable ballast, high - active trader, and strong influence [2]. II. Industry Perspective - ETFs are actively traded and have a high持仓占比 in traditional industries like banking, coal, and non - bank finance. In August, the banking sector had a 20.55%成交占比 and 10.48%持仓占比; the coal sector had a 16.81%成交占比 and 11.11%持仓占比; the non - bank finance sector had an 11.60%成交占比 and 11.76%持仓占比 [2]. - From July to August, the trading activity and持仓占比 of ETFs in cyclical industries such as coal, banking, and petroleum and petrochemicals increased significantly, while those in technology - growth sectors like electronics and computers decreased, possibly due to market style switching [3]. III. Individual Stock Perspective - Among the top 30 stocks in terms of ETF持仓, ETFs have a high degree of pricing power as the ETF持仓占 their free - float market value exceeds 10%, and stock price fluctuations are highly correlated with ETF redemptions and position adjustments [11]. - The stocks with high ETF持仓 are concentrated in industries, mainly in the semiconductor industry chain, followed by the pharmaceutical and biological industry, and also include some new energy, artificial intelligence, and software stocks [12]. - The market capitalization of stocks heavily held by ETFs varies widely, covering large - cap giants and medium - sized growth companies. These stocks are mostly leading companies in niche industries and are favored by ETFs, especially those from the Science and Technology Innovation Board [13].

Investment Rating - The report highlights a positive investment outlook for the automation equipment sector, particularly focusing on companies like Yushu Technology and Zhiyuan Technology [1][10]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of Yushu Technology's focus on high cost-performance and practical applications in quadruped and humanoid robots, maintaining a leading position in the quadruped robot market with a market share of 66.46% in sales volume [10][11]. - Zhiyuan Technology is noted for its open-source ecosystem and modular design, creating a comprehensive open-source robot platform that covers both industrial and consumer applications [14][15]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - In August 2025, the A-share market experienced a significant upward trend, with the mechanical equipment sector index rising by 12.91%, ranking 7th out of 31 sectors [22]. - The humanoid robot index saw a remarkable increase of 14.90% in August, with a year-to-date increase of 55.02% and a 52-week increase of 139.45% [31]. Company Dynamics - Yushu Technology's quadruped robots have achieved over 10,000 units sold, with a focus on industrial applications and a modular design for quick adaptation to various scenarios [10][12]. - Zhiyuan Technology's humanoid robots are designed for both industrial and consumer markets, with a focus on lightweight and open-source ecosystems [14][16]. ETF Investment Recommendations - The report suggests monitoring ETFs such as Guotai Zhongzheng Military Industry ETF (512660.SH), Huaxia National Aerospace Industry ETF (159227.SZ), and the Yifangda Robot ETF (159530.SZ) for potential investment opportunities [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report recommends a positive investment rating for sectors such as securities, communication equipment, and liquor [2]. Core Insights - The strategy report indicates a model recommendation for the week of September 1, 2025, to allocate investments in sectors including securities, communication equipment, and liquor, with additional holdings in various ETFs [2]. - The strategy has achieved a cumulative net return of approximately 6.58% during the period from August 25 to August 29, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 ETF by about 3.86% [2][11]. - Since October 14, 2024, the strategy has recorded a cumulative return of approximately 23.53%, with an excess return of about 5.20% compared to the CSI 300 ETF [2]. Summary by Sections Strategy Update - For the week of September 1, 2025, the model recommends adding holdings in the securities broker ETF, consumer 30 ETF, and defense ETF, while continuing to hold communication equipment ETF, satellite ETF, and battery ETF [2]. Performance Tracking - The strategy's cumulative net return from August 25 to August 29, 2025, is approximately 6.58%, with an excess return of about 3.86% over the CSI 300 ETF [2][11]. - The cumulative return since October 14, 2024, is approximately 23.53%, with an excess return of about 5.20% compared to the CSI 300 ETF [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the real estate sector [1] Core Viewpoints - The real estate sector has shown resilience, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 Index during the review period [10] - Recent policy adjustments in Beijing and Shanghai are expected to stimulate market transactions and improve sales performance [19] - The overall investment in real estate development continues to decline, with a significant drop in new construction areas and ongoing pressure on sales [51] Summary by Sections Market Review - The real estate sector outperformed major indices, with a 10.07% increase from August 1 to August 25, 2025, compared to 8.69% for the Shanghai Composite and 9.66% for the CSI 300 [10][15] - Year-to-date, the real estate sector has increased by 6.83%, lagging behind the broader market indices [10] Sales Performance - New home sales continued to decline in July and August, with a focus on the impact of policy changes in Beijing and Shanghai [19] - In July, the total sales area of commercial housing was 5.16 million square meters, down 4% year-on-year, with sales revenue down 6.5% [19][23] - The average daily transaction area for new homes in major cities decreased further in August [21] Investment Trends - Real estate development investment fell by 12% year-on-year in July, exacerbating the decline in fixed asset investment growth [51][52] - Manufacturing and infrastructure investments showed positive growth, but real estate development continues to drag down overall investment figures [52] Investment Recommendations - Developers are expected to ramp up sales efforts in anticipation of the "Golden September" period, particularly in core urban areas [19] - Companies with strong market recognition and operational capabilities, such as Binjiang Group and China Resources Land, are likely to benefit from the current market dynamics [19]