高硫近端充裕现货压制，低硫偏弱震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - High-sulfur fuel oil: Domestic high-sulfur spot is abundant in the near term, with the near-month internal and external price difference oscillating at a low level below zero. Asian high-sulfur supply remains at a high level, and the spot premium in Singapore continues to oscillate at a low level. The supply pressure in the third quarter is slightly less than expected. Demand is supported by the peak season of refined oil, the decline in high-sulfur cracking, and the increase in fuel oil consumption tax deduction in China. Seasonal power generation demand is gradually declining [3]. - Low-sulfur fuel oil: The spot premium of low-sulfur fuel oil oscillates. Supply continues to recover, but there is no specific driver for downstream demand. Attention should be paid to the adjustment and issuance rhythm of low-sulfur quotas in the near term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Comprehensive Analysis - High-sulfur: Domestic supply is abundant, Asian supply is high, and demand is supported by multiple factors. Seasonal power generation demand is decreasing [3]. - Low-sulfur: Supply is increasing, demand lacks drivers, and attention should be paid to quota adjustments [3]. - Strategies - Unilateral: Wait and see. Pay attention to geopolitical and macro disturbances [4]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. Pay attention to the digestion of near-term high-sulfur spot and the adjustment or issuance of low-sulfur quotas [4]. - Options: No specific view [4] 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - Supply Side - Russia: High-sulfur exports increased slightly in July. Refinery offline capacity increased due to maintenance and domestic demand. Sanctions from the EU and the US continue [6]. - Mexico: High-sulfur supply decreased significantly. Olmeca's secondary device was put into operation, and the processing volume of some refineries decreased. High-sulfur exports remained at a low level [9]. - Middle East: High-sulfur exports were stable at a low level. The impact of the Iraq oil field attack on supply was limited. Sanctions on Iran continued. Summer power generation demand in Saudi Arabia and Iran may divert supply [14]. - South Sudan: Low-sulfur heavy raw material supply recovered stably, and the number of export tenders in August increased compared to July [24]. - Al-Zour Refinery: Low-sulfur exports are expected to remain at a high level, and exports to the pan-Singapore region increased [27]. - Nigeria: The RFCC device of Dangote Refinery is still unstable, and low-sulfur export tenders continue to be issued [28]. - Demand Side - High-sulfur: Ship fuel demand is stable, and the marginal increase comes from the stable growth of the number of desulfurization tower ships. Power generation demand is expected to gradually subside in August and September. China's fuel oil consumption tax deduction ratio is expected to increase, which will support feedstock demand [15][18][23]. - Low-sulfur: Ship fuel demand is stable, but there is no specific driver [31]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking - Price and Spread - Fuel oil spot prices and spreads are presented in various charts, including the relationship between high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oil and Brent crude oil, as well as cross-regional and cross-period spreads [39][40][43]. - Inventory - Inventory data of fuel oil in Singapore, ARA, Fujairah, Japan, the US, and other regions are provided, along with the inventory structure of gasoline, diesel, and refined oil in Northwest Europe and the US Gulf [66][74][76]. - Terminal Sales - In June, Singapore's ship fuel bunkering volume decreased slightly compared to the previous month but increased compared to the same period last year. The proportion of high-sulfur and low-sulfur ship fuel bunkering changed [79].