冠通每日交易策略-20250728

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The domestic futures market on July 28, 2025, showed a mixed performance with most main contracts falling, and different varieties had their own supply - demand and market factors influencing their trends [7]. - For various commodities, the market is affected by factors such as supply - demand fundamentals, policies (anti - involution, trade policies), and macro - economic situations (tariffs, interest rate expectations). Each commodity is expected to have different trends, including oscillation, weakening, or potential rebounds [3][5][10] Variety - Specific Summaries 1. Soybean Oil - Today, the main 09 contract of soybean oil opened at 8160 yuan/ton and closed at 8120 yuan/ton, down 0.49%. It has been oscillating in the 8050 - 8160 yuan/ton range for 3 days, with weakening upward momentum. The supply is abundant as US soybeans are growing well and domestic soybean crushing volume is high, while the demand is weak due to the off - season. It is expected to oscillate, and one can consider buying on dips. Attention should be paid to US weather in August and US - EU trade negotiations [3]. 2. Coking Coal - Coking coal opened high and closed low, hitting the daily limit. Spot prices in Shanxi and Mongolia increased. Supply has little change, and inventory is being transferred downstream. With the fourth round of coke price increases expected and strong downstream demand, the sharp rebound was due to anti - involution expectations and demand from hydropower projects. After the exchange's risk - control measures, the market cooled. One should operate cautiously and watch for policy support [5]. 3. Copper (Shanghai Copper) - The copper market showed a weakening trend today. As of June 2025, copper ore imports decreased, and the inventory of refined copper ore is decreasing. Although TC/RC fees are negative, smelters' production enthusiasm is okay. The apparent consumption of copper is at a high level, but future consumption may be affected by trade policies. With overseas tariffs about to be implemented and the Fed's interest - rate decision in focus, the domestic market is supported by policies. The copper market is expected to oscillate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the tariff implementation next month [10]. 4. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened low and high, hitting the daily limit. The average price increased. The weekly capacity utilization rate decreased slightly, and the production in June increased. The price of spodumene supports the lower price, but the high inventory restricts the upward space. After the exchange's risk - control measures, the market cooled. One should watch the production capacity and output of lithium salt plants and mines [11][12]. 5. Crude Oil - Crude oil is in the seasonal peak travel season, with US inventories at a low level. OPEC+ will increase production in August. The IEA raised the global crude oil surplus in 2025. With sanctions on Russian oil and potential impacts on supply, and the downstream in the peak season, the crude oil price is expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to OPEC+'s production policy in September [13]. 6. Asphalt - The asphalt's supply decreased as the start - up rate dropped last week, and the planned production in August will decrease. The downstream start - up rate mostly increased, but was still restricted by funds and weather. The inventory ratio decreased. With potential increases in raw material supply and upcoming policies, the asphalt price is expected to oscillate [14][15]. 7. PP (Polypropylene) - The downstream start - up rate of PP decreased, and the enterprise start - up rate also dropped due to new maintenance. The inventory is high, and the cost of coal increased. With new production capacity and slow downstream recovery, and considering trade policies and potential policies, the PP price is expected to oscillate downward. It is recommended to liquidate long positions or continue the 09 - 01 reverse spread [16]. 8. Plastic - The plastic start - up rate increased with the restart of some plants, but the downstream start - up rate decreased. The inventory is high, and the cost of coal increased. With new production capacity and the off - season for some downstream products, and considering trade policies and potential policies, the plastic price is expected to oscillate downward. It is recommended to liquidate long positions or continue the 09 - 01 reverse spread [17][18]. 9. PVC - The PVC start - up rate decreased, and the downstream start - up rate is still low. The export situation is general, and the inventory is high. The real - estate market is still in adjustment, and the demand has not improved substantially. With potential policies, the PVC price is expected to oscillate downward. It is recommended to liquidate long positions or continue the 09 - 01 reverse spread [19]. 10. Soybean Meal - The main 09 contract of soybean meal showed a weakening trend today, with a 1.16% decline. The supply is abundant as the domestic soybean crushing volume is high and the production of soybean meal exceeds demand, leading to inventory accumulation. The demand is expected to weaken due to policies. With the weakening of US soybeans, the soybean meal price is expected to oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations, import costs, and oil - mill crushing [21]. 11. Rebar - The main 2510 contract of rebar decreased by 2.05% today. The short - term trend is bearish, while the long - term pattern is still in a recovery adjustment. The real - estate and infrastructure demand is weak, and the raw - material cost support is insufficient. The social inventory is accumulating. Short - term speculators can short on rallies, and hedging enterprises can gradually establish short - hedging positions. Attention should be paid to macro data and steel - mill production cuts [22]. 12. Hot - Rolled Coil - The main 2510 contract of hot - rolled coil decreased by 2.30% today. The short - term upward momentum is weak, and the long - term trend is in a recovery. The demand from real - estate and infrastructure is limited, and the raw - material cost support is insufficient. The social inventory is accumulating. Short - term speculators can short on rebounds, and hedging enterprises with inventory pressure can increase short - hedging positions [24]. 13. Urea - The urea price decreased by more than 3% today. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The inventory reduction slowed down, indicating poor terminal demand. After the exchange's risk - control measures, the market cooled. The market is expected to be weak and oscillate in the medium term, but there may be rebounds due to macro - sentiment fluctuations [25].