Report Overview - Report Title: National Carbon Market Market Briefing (Issue 124, 2025) [1] - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures [2] - Release Date: July 25, 2025 [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. Core Views - The average daily trading volume within the week was over 600,000 tons, and the CEA price fluctuated downward. The CEA main contract continued its weakness, with 288,000 tons listed and 0 tons in bulk transactions. The CCER listed agreement trading volume was 2,600 tons, with an average transaction price of 81.97 yuan/ton (0.04% change) [4]. - It is recommended that enterprises with a quota gap make batch purchases at low prices before the end of August [4]. - The depletion of mandatory circulation quotas may support a carbon price reversal. It is expected that the mandatory circulation quotas will be exhausted by mid - October. Anticipatory trading may occur, and signs of a carbon price reversal may be seen in Q3. Before August, the carbon price may remain volatile due to slow release of mandatory circulation quotas and low trading willingness. From September, as compliance pressure emerges, the upward momentum may be released, and the price may rise [6]. Summary by Directory Market Conditions - CEA: The closing prices of CEA19 - 20, CEA21, CEA22, CEA23, and CEA24 were 71.34 yuan/ton, 74.40 yuan/ton, 74.50 yuan/ton, 74.20 yuan/ton, and 74.04 yuan/ton respectively. The price changes were 0.00%, 0.00%, 0.00%, - 0.32%, and - 0.63% respectively. The total trading volumes were 0.00 tons, 0.00 tons, 1.00 ton, 7.15 tons, and 20.69 tons respectively [8]. - CCER: The trading volume was 2,600 tons, with an average transaction price of 81.97 yuan/ton (0.04% change), and the transaction amount was 211,500 yuan. The cumulative trading volume was 239,320 tons [10]. Strategy - It is recommended that enterprises with a quota gap make batch purchases at low prices before the end of August [4]. Core Logic - The depletion of mandatory circulation quotas may support a carbon price reversal. It is expected that the mandatory circulation quotas will be exhausted by mid - October. Anticipatory trading may occur, and signs of a carbon price reversal may be seen in Q3. Before August, the carbon price may remain volatile due to slow release of mandatory circulation quotas and low trading willingness. From September, as compliance pressure emerges, the upward momentum may be released, and the price may rise [6]
全国碳市场行情简报(2025年第124期)-20250728
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-07-28 11:52