尿素周报：农需支撑阶段性转弱-20250728

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term urea futures prices may fluctuate weakly. The domestic urea spot market price has been fluctuating weakly this week. With many recent plant overhauls, the supply is in a state of phased reduction. Although the inventory of urea enterprises continues to decline due to some goods being shipped to ports, the decline rate has narrowed due to the phased weakening of agricultural demand. The agricultural top - dressing demand is coming to an end, the enthusiasm for picking up autumn fertilizers is low, the finished product inventory pressure of compound fertilizers is large, and the start - up is still in a state of gradual recovery from a low level. However, there is an expected marginal improvement in autumn fertilizers and export demand provides strong bottom support for urea. The UR2509 contract should pay attention to the support around 1680 - 1720 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - long Views Summary - Supply: Many plants are under maintenance recently, resulting in a phased reduction in supply. The weekly urea output is 1354700 tons (-1.02%), among which the coal - based urea output is 1062300 tons (-1.35%), and the gas - based urea output is 292400 tons (+0.17%), with an average daily output of 194000 tons [5][21]. - Demand: The support from agricultural demand has weakened phasedly, but there are still expectations for autumn fertilizers and exports. The compound fertilizer enterprise start - up rate is 33.58% (+1.03%), and the finished product inventory is 742100 tons (a month - on - month increase of 6300 tons). The start - up of melamine is 65.20% (+0.96%), and downstream maintains rigid demand procurement [5][35]. - Inventory: The inventory of upstream urea enterprises has decreased, but the decline rate has narrowed. The urea enterprise inventory is 858800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 36700 tons. The port inventory is 543000 tons (a month - on - month increase of 2000 tons). The mainstream pre - collection days of urea enterprises are 5.94 days (a month - on - month decrease of 1.98%), and the number of days of orders to be delivered by enterprises has decreased slightly month - on - month [5][32]. - Cost and Profit: Coal prices are moderately strong, and urea profits have decreased month - on - month [5]. - Basis and Spread: The 9 - 1 spread is running weakly, and the change in the 09 basis is limited [5]. 3.2 Variety Details Decomposition - Domestic Urea Market Price: The domestic urea market price has been fluctuating upwards this week [7]. - International Urea Price: International urea prices have shown a mixed trend of rising and falling [11]. - Supply: Many plants are under maintenance recently, resulting in a phased reduction in supply. Some enterprises such as Hulunbuir Jinxin Chemical Co., Ltd. and Shanxi Jinmei Tianyuan Chemical Co., Ltd. have planned maintenance [17][25]. - Inventory: The inventory of upstream urea enterprises has decreased, but the decline rate has narrowed. The port inventory has changed slightly [28][32]. - Demand: The support from agricultural demand has weakened phasedly, but there are still expectations for autumn fertilizers and exports. The start - up rates of compound fertilizers and melamine have increased slightly [34][35]. - Raw Material End: Coal prices have maintained an upward trend [37]. - Profit: Urea profits have decreased slightly month - on - month [43]. - Spread Analysis: The 9 - 1 spread is running weakly, and the change in the 09 basis is limited [46].