Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-07-28 11:55Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [6][5]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading domestic wafer foundry in China, with a focus on both advanced process technology and mature process expansion [5]. - The company has achieved a significant revenue milestone, with quarterly revenues exceeding $2 billion for three consecutive quarters, indicating a positive trend in fundamentals [5][12]. - The company is expected to benefit from the localization of manufacturing and the increasing demand for advanced chips due to geopolitical factors [5]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at $9.451 billion, $10.860 billion, and $11.998 billion, respectively, with growth rates of 18%, 15%, and 10% [25][32]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period are $743 million, $948 million, and $1.069 billion, reflecting growth rates of 51%, 28%, and 13% [25][32]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve slightly, reaching 19.5%, 20%, and 20.5% from 2025 to 2027 [25]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company is a core beneficiary of high-end chip orders as domestic IC design firms increasingly collaborate with local foundries [5]. - The advanced process capacity in mainland China is currently low, with only 1.7% of capacity at 14nm and below, indicating a strategic opportunity for the company [5][18]. - The company is expected to maintain a competitive edge due to its ability to produce advanced nodes, which are critical for AI infrastructure [5][18]. Valuation and Target Price - The report assigns a target price of HKD 63.3 per share based on a 3x price-to-book (PB) valuation for 2025, reflecting the company's leading position in advanced process foundry services in mainland China [6][27].