Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-28 12:07Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The rapeseed meal market continues to oscillate weakly, with short - term participation recommended due to large market fluctuations recently. The rapeseed oil market has intensified short - term fluctuations, and recently it has performed weaker than soybean and palm oils [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil was 9406 yuan/ton (down 51 yuan), rapeseed meal was 2660 yuan/ton (down 15 yuan), ICE rapeseed was 699.9 Canadian dollars/ton (up 2.6 Canadian dollars), and domestic rapeseed was 5197 yuan/ton (up 60 yuan) [2] - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil (9 - 1) was 49 yuan/ton (down 7 yuan), rapeseed meal (9 - 1) was 267 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan) [2] - Main contract positions: Rapeseed oil was 201338 lots (down 9445 lots), rapeseed meal was 468326 lots (down 15182 lots) [2] - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: Rapeseed oil was 15749 lots (up 2973 lots), rapeseed meal was 24840 lots (up 1665 lots) [2] - Warehouse receipt quantities: Rapeseed oil was 3487 sheets (unchanged), rapeseed meal was 0 sheets (unchanged) [2] Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9570 yuan/ton (unchanged), rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2560 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 6000 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2] - Average price: Rapeseed oil was 9610 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2] - Import cost of rapeseed: 4981.37 yuan/ton (up 20.15 yuan) [2] - Basis: Rapeseed oil main contract basis was 113 yuan/ton (up 35 yuan), rapeseed meal main contract basis was - 100 yuan/ton (down 5 yuan) [2] Substitute Spot Prices - Spot prices: Fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing was 8320 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan), 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8970 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan), soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 2850 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan) [2] - Spot price differences: Rapeseed - soybean oil was 1220 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), rapeseed - palm oil was 570 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan), soybean - rapeseed meal was 290 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan) [2] Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production forecast: 89.77 million tons (up 0.21 million tons), annual forecast value of rapeseed production was 12378 thousand tons (unchanged) [2] - Rapeseed import volume: 18.45 tons (down 15.1 tons) [2] - Imported rapeseed crushing profit: 232 yuan/ton [2] - Rapeseed inventory in oil mills: 20 tons (up 5 tons) [2] - Imported rapeseed weekly operating rate: 14.93% (down 0.79%) [2] Industry Situation - Import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil: 34 tons (up 10 tons), import volume of rapeseed meal: 28.79 tons (up 4.13 tons) [2] - Coastal rapeseed oil inventory: 9.55 tons (up 0.3 tons), coastal rapeseed meal inventory: 1.9 tons [2] - East China rapeseed oil inventory: 56.27 tons (down 2.18 tons), East China rapeseed meal inventory: 35.13 tons (down 2.91 tons) [2] - Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory: 5.55 tons (down 0.05 tons), South China rapeseed meal inventory: 27 tons (down 1.2 tons) [2] - Weekly rapeseed oil pick - up volume: 2.91 tons (down 0.38 tons), weekly rapeseed meal pick - up volume: 2.32 tons (down 0.14 tons) [2] Downstream Situation - Feed production: 2762.1 tons (up 98.1 tons) [2] - Retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry: 4707.6 billion yuan (up 129.4 billion yuan) [2] - Edible vegetable oil production: 440.4 tons (down 87 tons) [2] Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal: 23.87% (down 0.09%), implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal: 23.87% (down 0.09%) [2] - Historical volatility of rapeseed meal: 20 - day was 15.85% (up 0.2%), 60 - day was 16.72% [2] - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil: 16.52% (up 0.71%), implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil: 16.52% (up 0.76%) [2] - Historical volatility of rapeseed oil: 20 - day was 10.9% (unchanged), 60 - day was 12.14% (up 0.03%) [2] Industry News - On July 25 (Friday), ICE rapeseed futures rose. The market was caught between bullish biofuel factors and bearish good crop conditions. The most actively traded November rapeseed futures closed up 5.10 Canadian dollars at 700.80 Canadian dollars per ton [2] - As of the week ending July 20, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 68%, lower than analysts' expectations of 71%, but still at a high level in the same period [2] Rapeseed Meal View Summary - The domestic oil mill operating rate is relatively high, soybean meal continues to accumulate inventory, and the future pig inventory is expected to decline. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs emphasizes the reduction and substitution of soybean meal, reducing demand expectations. However, the uncertainty of fourth - quarter ship purchases supports the forward market. Near - month rapeseed arrivals are low, and the aquaculture peak season increases the seasonal demand for rapeseed meal. But the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation for rapeseed meal. The rapeseed meal market continues to oscillate weakly [2] Rapeseed Oil View Summary - High - frequency data shows that from July 1 - 20, Malaysian palm oil production increased while exports declined, which restricts palm oil prices. But the large increase in Indonesian exports and positive news in the US and Indonesian biodiesel sectors boost the oil market. In China, it is the off - season for oil consumption, and the supply of vegetable oil is relatively loose. The inventory pressure of rapeseed oil mills is high, but the reduction in the operating rate of oil mills weakens the output pressure of rapeseed oil. The reduction in third - quarter rapeseed purchases eases the supply - side pressure [2] Key Points to Watch - The rapeseed operating rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventory in various regions announced by Myagric on Monday, and the development of China - Canada and Canada - US trade disputes [2]