正信期货生猪周报2025-7-28：政策精准引导猪价稳定运行-20250728

Report Information - Report Title: Zhengxin Futures Weekly Report on Live Pigs (2025-7-28) [2] - Research Group: Zhengxin Futures Research Institute - Agricultural Products Research Group [2] Industry Investment Rating - Supply: Bullish [3] - Demand: Bearish [3] - Profit: Neutral [3] - Price and Volume: Neutral [3] - Strategy: Sideways [3] Core Viewpoints - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a symposium on promoting the high - quality development of the pig industry, emphasizing issues such as over - capacity and suggesting measures like culling sows and controlling fat pig weights [3]. - In the short term, the average weight of commercial pig sales by sample breeding enterprises increased slightly, the price difference between standard and fat pigs continued to decline, and the proportion of large pig sales increased significantly [3]. - Slaughter starts increased slightly this week, with narrow - fluctuating slaughter profits and a slight increase in frozen product inventory, which is at a low level in the same period of the past 4 years. High temperatures have suppressed pork consumption, and concentrated procurement has decreased due to construction site closures [3]. - Self - breeding and self - raising profits are near the break - even point, and the pig - grain ratio is at the average level of the same period in the past 4 years. The basis of live pigs has decreased rapidly, and the near - month contracts are at par [3]. - The price difference between near - and far - term live pig futures contracts is oscillating downward, at a normal level in the same period of history. The net short position of institutional investors in the main live pig futures contract is oscillating [3]. - With policy support and corporate actions, it is expected that the market path in the second half of the year may be similar to that in 2023, with pig prices rising moderately and weights decreasing significantly. The operation strategy is to dynamically construct a bullish call spread for the September live pig futures contract [3] Summary by Directory Price and Volume Analysis - Analyzes aspects including live pig spot prices, basis, price differences between contracts, and institutional net positions [4][7][10][13] Supply Analysis - Covers sows in stock, piglet supply, pig sales, and the price difference between standard and fat pigs [16][19][21][23] Demand Analysis - Includes pig slaughter, frozen product inventory, and substitutes [25][28][32] Profit Analysis - Focuses on breeding profits and the pig - grain ratio [35][37]