利空情绪主导，能化弱势下行

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern due to profit - taking by long positions and a collective decline in the black - chain commodity futures on Monday [4]. - The domestic methanol futures 2509 contract is likely to continue its weak and volatile trend, affected by the sharp decline in domestic coal futures and the weak supply - demand fundamentals of methanol [4]. - Domestic and international crude oil futures prices are expected to remain in a volatile consolidation pattern, as the bearish impact of production increases has been digested, and it is currently the peak oil - consumption season in the Northern Hemisphere [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of July 20, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 634,600 tons, a decrease of 1,800 tons (0.28%) from the previous period. The bonded area inventory decreased by 1.39%, and the general trade inventory decreased by 0.13%. The inbound and outbound rates of both types of warehouses decreased [8]. - As of July 24, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.06%, a week - on - week increase of 1.93 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.06 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.23%, a week - on - week increase of 0.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.98 percentage points. Production in some enterprises returned to normal, but overall shipments were flat, and inventory increased slightly [8]. - In June 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 56.6%, a year - on - year decrease of 5.7 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 3.9 percentage points. From January to June 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 15.621 million and 15.653 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 12.5% and 11.4%. New energy vehicle production and sales were 6.968 million and 6.937 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 41.4% and 40.3%, accounting for 44.3% of total new vehicle sales [9]. Methanol - As of the week of July 25, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 81.66%, a week - on - week increase of 1.06%, a month - on - month decrease of 6.35%, and a significant year - on - year increase of 15.35%. The weekly average methanol output was 1.8989 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 29,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 158,800 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 376,500 tons [10]. - As of the week of July 25, 2025, the operating rates of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, acetic acid, and MTBE were 29.96% (a week - on - week decrease of 0.72%), 5.31% (unchanged), 92.95% (a week - on - week increase of 0.18%), and 57.16% (a week - on - week increase of 2.32%) respectively. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 76.42%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.39 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 0.15%. The futures profit of domestic methanol - to - olefin was - 307 yuan/ton, a significant week - on - week decrease of 225 yuan/ton and a significant month - on - month decrease of 218 yuan/ton [10]. - As of the week of July 25, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was 587,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 53,000 tons, and a significant year - on - year decrease of 254,100 tons. The inventory in East China ports was 416,700 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 29,300 tons), and in South China ports was 170,400 tons (a week - on - week increase of 20,400 tons) [11][12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of July 18, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the US was 422, a week - on - week decrease of 2 and a year - on - year decrease of 55. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.273 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 102,000 barrels/day and a year - on - year decrease of 27,000 barrels/day [13]. - As of the week of July 18, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 419 million barrels, a significant week - on - week decrease of 3.169 million barrels and a significant year - on - year decrease of 17.492 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 21.863 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 455,000 barrels. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory was 402.5 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 200,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was 95.5%, a week - on - week increase of 1.6 percentage points, a month - on - month increase of 0.8 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 3.9 percentage points [13]. - As of July 22, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 153,331 contracts, a significant week - on - week decrease of 9,096 contracts and a significant decrease of 52,648 contracts compared to the June average. The average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 227,245 contracts, a significant week - on - week decrease of 11,576 contracts and a significant increase of 40,622 contracts compared to the June average [14]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 15,350 yuan/ton | +50 yuan/ton | 15,065 yuan/ton | - 520 yuan/ton | +285 yuan/ton | +520 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,530 yuan/ton | +30 yuan/ton | 2,404 yuan/ton | - 115 yuan/ton | +126 yuan/ton | +115 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 483.6 yuan/barrel | +0.3 yuan/barrel | 505.9 yuan/barrel | - 7.0 yuan/barrel | - 22.4 yuan/barrel | +7.3 yuan/barrel | [16] 3.3 Related Charts - Rubber: The report provides charts on rubber basis, 9 - 1 spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, full - steel tire operating rate trend, etc. [17][19][21] - Methanol: Charts include methanol basis, 9 - 1 spread, domestic port methanol inventory, inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, etc. [29][31][33] - Crude Oil: Charts cover crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US commercial crude oil inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI and Brent crude oil net position changes, etc. [42][44][46]