铁合金周报：反内卷预期扩大，合金轮动上涨-20250728

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, industrial products led by polysilicon and coking coal hit the daily limit one after another. Positive policy expectations also drove ferrosilicon and silicomanganese to hit the daily limit on Friday. However, the fundamentals changed little, with weak demand in the off - season and continuous increase in supply as enterprise profits improved. Currently, the main changes are in coal raw materials and macro - policy expectations. Both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are following macro - expectations rather than industrial logic. Without demand improvement, continuous premium on the futures market is not conducive to long - term price rebounds. The industry is still advised to sell for hedging in a timely manner, and pay attention to the important meetings and policies at the end of the month [4][22] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Ferrosilicon 3.1.1 Supply - The profits of manufacturers have recovered, and the increase in the operating rate has led to a larger increase in production. The weekly output of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 102,300 tons (a month - on - month increase of 2.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.6%), and the output in June 2025 was 414,100 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 0.18% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.13%) [4][6] 3.1.2 Demand - The pig iron output is at a high level with a slight seasonal decline. The consumption of ferrosilicon in five major steel products was 20,000 tons (a month - on - month increase of 0.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.3%), and the weekly output of five major steel products was 866,900 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 0.14% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.97%) [4][9] 3.1.3 Inventory - Manufacturers have reduced inventory for two consecutive weeks. The enterprise inventory was 62,100 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 2.22% and a year - on - year increase of 5.38%), and the inventory days of steel mills in July were 14.25 days (a month - on - month decrease of 1.13 days and a year - on - year decrease of 0.98 days) [4][11] 3.1.4 Cost - The raw materials remained stable during the week. The prices of electricity, semi - coke small materials, anodes, iron oxide scale, silica, etc. did not change, but the profits in some regions increased significantly [12][14] 3.1.5 Basis - The basis of the ferrosilicon main contract in Ningxia quickly turned negative after the futures market hit the daily limit on Friday. The basis of the 09 contract was - 316 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 388 yuan/ton [4] 3.1.6 Strategy Recommendation - It is not advisable to chase the rise at high levels for speculation. The lower support is around 5,600. Manufacturers should choose the opportunity to sell for hedging [4] 3.2 Silicomanganese 3.2.1 Supply - The operating rates in both the northern and southern production areas have increased, and the increase in production has expanded. The weekly output of 121 independent silicomanganese enterprises was 186,000 tons (a month - on - month increase of 1.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.5%), and the national silicomanganese output in June was 752,300 tons (a month - on - month increase of 1.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 19.1%) [22][24] 3.2.2 Demand - The profitability of steel mills is acceptable, but the seasonal operating rate of steel mills has declined. The weekly consumption of silicomanganese was 123,000 tons (a month - on - month increase of 0.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%), and the weekly output of five major steel products was 866,900 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 0.14% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.97%) [22][26] 3.2.3 Inventory - After production cuts, the inventory pressure of manufacturers has decreased. The manganese ore inventory increased last week, and oxidized ore has arrived at ports one after another. The enterprise sample inventory was 205,000 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 5.22% and a year - on - year increase of 3.27%), and the inventory days of steel mills in July were 14.24 days (a month - on - month decrease of 1.25 days and a year - on - year decrease of 1.19 days) [22][29] 3.2.4 Cost - The quotation of manganese ore is firm, and the price of chemical coke has continued to rise. The prices of some manganese ores and chemical coke have increased, driving up the production cost of silicomanganese [33][36] 3.2.5 Basis - The futures discount has slightly narrowed. The basis of the 09 contract in Inner Mongolia was - 364 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 540 yuan/ton [22][31] 3.2.6 Strategy Recommendation - It is not advisable to chase the rise at high levels for speculation. The lower support is around 6,000. Manufacturers should choose the opportunity to sell for hedging [22]