中原期货纯碱玻璃周报-20250728

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1纯碱 - This week, the spot price of soda ash remained stable with a slight upward trend. With the resumption of production of previously shut - down plants, the supply of soda ash is expected to increase. The apparent demand for soda ash increased significantly on a week - on - week basis. The increase in futures prices stimulated the replenishment enthusiasm of downstream and mid - stream enterprises, leading to a reduction in enterprise inventories. The daily melting volume of float glass is expected to increase slightly, while the supply of photovoltaic glass is still expected to decrease. In the short term, the near - month contracts still face significant delivery pressure, and the expected macro - policy disturbances have intensified the risk of price fluctuations on the futures market. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach for now and pay attention to the impact of macro - policies and the follow - up situation of downstream industries [5]. 2.2 Glass - This week, the spot price of float glass increased. With some previously ignited production lines starting to produce, the output is expected to rise. On the demand side, the purchasing enthusiasm of mid - and downstream enterprises increased, and most glass enterprises significantly reduced their inventories. Currently, the operating rate of LOW - E glass sample enterprises is 77.5%, showing a slight decline on a week - on - week basis and remaining at a low level compared to the same period last year. In the short term, the expected macro - policy disturbances are still strong. The weakening sentiment in the commodity market has led to a significant correction in glass futures prices, and the risk of price fluctuations on the futures market is high. It is recommended to wait and see for now and focus on the impact of macro - policies [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Views Summary 3.1.1 Soda Ash - Supply: The plant operating rate was 83.02% (down 1.08% week - on - week), with the ammonia - soda process at 87.70% (unchanged week - on - week) and the combined - soda process at 72.26% (down 1.67% week - on - week). The weekly output was 72.38 million tons (down 0.94 million tons week - on - week), including 31.49 million tons of light soda ash (down 0.36 million tons) and 40.89 million tons of heavy soda ash (down 0.58 million tons) [5]. - Demand: The apparent demand for soda ash was 76.48 million tons (up 7.38 million tons), with 35.57 million tons of light soda ash (up 2.89 million tons) and 40.91 million tons of heavy soda ash (up 4.49 million tons) [5]. - Inventory: The inventory of soda ash enterprises was 186.46 million tons (down 1.96 million tons), including 74.22 million tons of light soda ash (down 1.49 million tons) and 112.24 million tons of heavy soda ash (down 0.47 million tons) [5]. 3.1.2 Glass - Supply: The daily melting volume of float glass was 159,000 tons, up 0.73% compared to July 17th. There were 296 glass production lines in the country, with 222 in operation and 74 shut down for cold repair. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass was 87,700 tons, down 1.52% week - on - week [6]. - Inventory: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 61.896 million heavy cases, down 3.043 million heavy cases week - on - week (down 4.69% week - on - week and 7.74% year - on - year), equivalent to 26.6 days of inventory, 1.3 days less than the previous period [6]. - Demand: As of July 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.3 days, down 2.1% week - on - week and 7.0% year - on - year [6]. 3.2 Variety Details Decomposition 3.2.1 Market Review - Spot Prices - As of July 24, 2025, the market price of heavy soda ash in Central China was 1,250 yuan/ton, and that of light soda ash was 1,150 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 100 yuan/ton. In North China, the market price of heavy soda ash was 1,300 yuan/ton, and that of light soda ash was 1,200 yuan/ton, also with a price difference of 100 yuan/ton. The price of the soda ash main contract was strong, with the basis in the Shahe area at - 10 yuan/ton (unchanged week - on - week). The glass futures price rebounded significantly, and the basis in the Shahe area was - 231 yuan/ton (down 195 yuan/ton week - on - week) [11][14]. 3.2.2 Market Review - Spreads - As of July 24, 2025, the 9 - 1 spread of soda ash was - 77 yuan/ton (down 31 yuan/ton week - on - week); the 9 - 1 spread of glass was - 95 yuan/ton (down 19 yuan/ton week - on - week); and the glass - soda ash arbitrage spread was 101 yuan/ton (down 32 yuan/ton week - on - week) [19]. 3.2.3 Fundamentals - Supply - The weekly output of soda ash was 72.38 million tons (down 0.94 million tons week - on - week), including 31.49 million tons of light soda ash (down 0.36 million tons) and 40.89 million tons of heavy soda ash (down 0.58 million tons). With the resumption of production of previously shut - down plants, the supply of soda ash is expected to increase. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash this week was 83.02%, down 1.08% week - on - week. Among them, the capacity utilization rate of the ammonia - soda process was 87.70% (unchanged week - on - week), and that of the combined - soda process was 72.26% (down 1.67% week - on - week) [25][34]. - There were 296 glass production lines in the country, with 222 in operation and 74 shut down for cold repair. The national daily output of float glass was 159,000 tons, up 0.73% compared to July 17th. This week, the national float glass output was 1.1081 million tons, up 0.09% week - on - week and down 7.06% year - on - year. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass was 87,700 tons, down 1.52% week - on - week and 22.83% year - on - year [45]. 3.2.4 Fundamentals - Inventory - As of July 24, 2025, the inventory of soda ash enterprises was 186.46 million tons (down 1.96 million tons), including 74.22 million tons of light soda ash (down 1.49 million tons) and 112.24 million tons of heavy soda ash (down 0.47 million tons). The apparent demand for soda ash this week was 76.48 million tons, an increase of 7.38 million tons on a week - on - week basis. The apparent demand for light soda ash was 35.57 million tons, an increase of 2.89 million tons on a week - on - week basis, and the apparent demand for heavy soda ash was 40.91 million tons, an increase of 4.49 million tons on a week - on - week basis [37][42]. - The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 61.896 million heavy cases, down 3.043 million heavy cases week - on - week (down 4.69% week - on - week and 7.74% year - on - year), equivalent to 26.6 days of inventory, 1.3 days less than the previous period. As of July 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.3 days, down 2.1% week - on - week and 7.0% year - on - year [49]. 3.2.5 Fundamentals - Profitability - As of July 24, 2025, the theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process for soda ash production in China was - 35 yuan/ton, up 48 yuan/ton week - on - week; the theoretical profit of the combined - soda process (per double - ton) was 17.50 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan/ton week - on - week [52].