周观点0727：反内卷持续发酵，雅下水电催动行情-20250728

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [5] Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing "anti-involution" trend, which has led to significant price increases in lithium carbonate and polysilicon, benefiting the photovoltaic and lithium battery supply chains [9][13] - The Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project has commenced, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, primarily focusing on external consumption [13] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring price changes across the photovoltaic supply chain and the impact of new technologies on the industry [15] Summary by Sections Photovoltaics - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a price increase, with polysilicon dense material prices rising to 49-52 yuan/kg and silicon wafer prices increasing by 7%-10% [13][21] - The National Development and Reform Commission has solicited opinions on the amendment to the Price Law, aiming to regulate low-price dumping and "involution" competition [21] - The cumulative installed capacity of solar power in China has surpassed 1.1 billion kilowatts, with a year-on-year increase of 107% in the first half of 2025 [21] Energy Storage - The energy storage sector is witnessing a sustained increase in demand, with significant projects being initiated in Argentina and China [42][43] - The report notes that the approval process for energy storage projects in Jiangsu has been simplified, which is expected to stimulate growth in the sector [43] - The U.S. energy storage market continues to grow, with a total installed capacity of 5.91 GW in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 36.2% [49] Lithium Batteries - The lithium battery sector is stable, with a focus on solid-state battery technology and the impact of rising lithium prices on the supply chain [16] - The report recommends companies with stable profit margins and strong market positions, such as CATL and other second-tier players, as potential investment opportunities [16] Wind Power - The domestic offshore wind power sector is accelerating, with expectations for increased profitability as project deliveries ramp up [16] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the performance of wind turbine manufacturers and the impact of rising material costs on profitability [16] Power Equipment - The commencement of the Yarlung Tsangpo hydropower project is expected to have a positive marginal impact on the power equipment sector [16] - The report suggests focusing on high-voltage transmission projects and the potential for new opportunities in power AI and virtual power plants [16] New Directions - The report discusses advancements in humanoid robotics and AI, with companies like Tesla and Google making significant investments in these areas [16] - It highlights the potential for growth in the robotics supply chain and related technologies, recommending companies involved in these sectors [16]