宏观经济研究：2025年8月大类资产配置报告

Group 1: Global Economic Outlook - The US is experiencing reduced uncertainty in economic growth due to the resolution of tariff negotiations with major trading partners, but inflation concerns are resurfacing[1] - Global inflation risks are increasing, potentially reversing expectations for interest rate cuts, which may impact financial markets in August and September[1] - The US government recorded a fiscal surplus of $27 billion in June, the first surplus in June in nearly eight years, which may alleviate some fiscal pressure from tax cuts[8] Group 2: Domestic Economic Conditions - China's economic stabilization in the first half of 2025 was primarily driven by increased fiscal spending and rapid export growth, but the real estate sector continues to face contraction pressures[1] - The "anti-involution" policy may become a central theme in the second half of the year, potentially improving market supply-demand relationships and restoring market confidence[1] - Real estate sales in the first half of 2025 saw a significant decline, with new residential prices in 70 major cities dropping by 0.3% month-on-month in June[14] Group 3: Asset Allocation Insights - International stock markets have been the main source of profit in July, buoyed by positive sentiment from US-EU trade agreements, offsetting declines in domestic and international bond markets[2] - The strategy for August maintains the July allocations, with a focus on hedging positions in Japanese and Italian stocks against German stocks, while being bearish on the international bond market[2] - Commodity prices, particularly crude oil, have seen seasonal increases, while gold remains attractive as a safe-haven asset amidst geopolitical uncertainties[2]