股指可考虑防守观望，国债关注止盈

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1 Stock Index Strategy - A-share broad-based indices had positive weekly gains, with the Science and Technology Innovation 50 having the largest cumulative increase of 4.63% and the CSI 500 rising over 3%. The US and the EU reached a trade agreement, and the US June durable goods orders had a sharp decline. China's June industrial enterprise profits showed a narrowing decline, and the CSRC aimed to consolidate the market. Considering the market sentiment cooling and high technical indicators, the stock index's slow bull trend remains unchanged, but there may be a near-term correction, so a defensive wait-and-see approach is advisable [12]. 2.2 Treasury Bond Strategy - In the bond market, funds are flowing out, and with macro events concentrated at the end of July and early August, the bond market may experience an adjustment in a volatile pattern. Whether to participate on the left side or wait for the release of position pressure depends on the investor's position, duration, and tolerance. It is recommended to focus on taking profits [13]. 2.3 PMI - In June, the manufacturing PMI rose to 49.7%, better than expected, with both supply and demand improving. However, there were structural differences, such as small enterprises' contraction intensifying and the high-tech manufacturing industry remaining flat. Only 7 out of 15 sub - industries had better sentiment than in May [20]. 2.4 Inflation - In May 2025, the CPI had a slight year - on - year decline, and the PPI also decreased year - on - year. The current price situation shows "food differentiation and services stronger than goods," and the core inflation momentum is still insufficient. The decline in PPI is affected by international and domestic factors, but there are also positive changes in some areas [29][32]. 2.5 Industrial Enterprise Profitability - In May, the year - on - year growth rate of profits of industrial enterprises above designated size declined, mainly due to the decline in volume, price, and profit margin, with the profit margin having the most significant impact. Enterprises may adopt a strategy of reducing prices to clear inventory [35]. 2.6 Fiscal Situation - From January to May, the national general public budget revenue decreased slightly year - on - year, while the expenditure increased. The tax revenue recovery margin slowed down, and the real - estate - related tax drag increased. The fiscal expenditure rhythm slowed down marginally, and the government fund revenue decline widened while the expenditure slowed down [38][41]. 2.7 Industrial Added Value - In May, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value declined, while the service industry added value increased. The production - sales imbalance persists, and export - related production is weak. The GDP growth rate in the second quarter is expected to exceed 5% [44]. 2.8 Fixed - Asset Investment - From January to May, the year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment declined. Investment in infrastructure, manufacturing, and real estate all decreased. Although the real - estate physical volume was not weak this month, the real - estate investment was still under pressure in terms of funds [47]. 2.9 Social Retail Sales - In May, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales increased, mainly driven by the early start of the 618 promotion and the strong performance of the May Day holiday in driving offline consumption [50]. 2.10 Social Financing - In May, the new social financing was 2.3 trillion yuan, with government bonds being the main support. Although the social financing growth rate is expected to rise in the second and third quarters, there is still pressure for it to rise and then fall in the second half of the year [53]. 2.11 Import and Export - In May, China's exports and imports continued to grow, with exports performing well. The central region led the national foreign trade growth. Due to the Sino - US trade relationship and the leading growth rate of processing trade, exports are expected to maintain resilient growth in June [59]. 2.12 US Non - Farm Payrolls - In May 2025, the US labor market showed resilience, with more new jobs than expected. However, there were internal structural differences. The service industry had employment growth, while the commodity production sector was weak. The wage growth exceeded expectations, strengthening inflation concerns and giving the Fed more reason to stay on the sidelines [62][65]. 2.13 US CPI - In May, the US CPI and core CPI increased year - on - year as expected. The inflation pressure on core commodities and services was controllable. The Fed maintained the interest rate target range and emphasized high uncertainty, so it tended to stay on the sidelines [68]. 2.14 US PMI - In June, the US Markit manufacturing PMI was stable at 52, and the service industry PMI was slightly lower. The manufacturing growth was mainly driven by inventory, and the inflation pressure increased significantly. The current US economy shows a "weak expansion + high inflation" characteristic, and the growth momentum may further weaken [71]. 3. Summaries According to the Catalog 3.1 Financial Futures Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Stock Index Strategy - Strategy Outlook: Adopt a defensive wait - and - see approach [11]. - Trend Review: A - share broad - based indices had positive weekly gains [12]. - Technical Analysis: The RSI indicator shows a potential correction risk for the market index [12]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bond Strategy - Strategy Outlook: Focus on taking profits [13]. - Trend Review: The bond market was volatile, and the treasury bond futures showed a downward trend [13]. - Technical Analysis: The KDJ indicator shows that the T main contract may operate weakly in a volatile manner [13]. 3.2 Key Data Tracking 3.2.1 PMI - In June, the manufacturing PMI rose, with both supply and demand improving. However, there were structural differences among different enterprise sizes, industries, and sub - industries [20]. - The price and inventory situation also showed different characteristics at the industry level, with some industries replenishing inventory and others reducing inventory through price cuts [23]. - The non - manufacturing PMI rose, mainly due to the increase in the construction industry PMI, while the service industry PMI declined [26]. 3.2.2 Inflation - In May 2025, the CPI had a slight year - on - year decline, with food price differentiation and service prices being more resilient. The PPI decreased year - on - year, mainly affected by international and domestic factors, but there were positive changes in some areas [29][32]. 3.2.3 Profitability of Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size - In May, the year - on - year growth rate of profits declined, mainly due to the decline in volume, price, and profit margin. Enterprises may be adopting a strategy of reducing prices to clear inventory [35]. 3.2.4 Fiscal - From January to May, the national general public budget revenue decreased slightly year - on - year, and the expenditure increased. The tax revenue recovery margin slowed down, and the real - estate - related tax drag increased. The fiscal expenditure rhythm slowed down marginally, and the government fund revenue decline widened while the expenditure slowed down [38][41]. 3.2.5 Industrial Added Value - In May, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value declined, while the service industry added value increased. The production - sales imbalance persisted, and export - related production was weak [44]. 3.2.6 Fixed - Asset Investment - From January to May, the year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment declined. Investment in infrastructure, manufacturing, and real estate all decreased. Although the real - estate physical volume was not weak this month, the real - estate investment was still under pressure in terms of funds [47]. 3.2.7 Social Retail Sales - In May, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales increased, mainly driven by the early start of the 618 promotion and the strong performance of the May Day holiday in driving offline consumption [50]. 3.2.8 Social Financing - In May, the new social financing was 2.3 trillion yuan, with government bonds being the main support. The social financing growth rate is expected to rise in the second and third quarters but may face pressure to rise and then fall in the second half of the year [53]. 3.2.9 Import and Export - In May, China's exports and imports continued to grow, with exports performing well. The central region led the national foreign trade growth. Exports are expected to maintain resilient growth in June [59]. 3.2.10 US Non - Farm Payrolls - In May 2025, the US labor market showed resilience, with more new jobs than expected. There were internal structural differences, and wage growth exceeded expectations, strengthening inflation concerns [62][65]. 3.2.11 US CPI - In May, the US CPI and core CPI increased year - on - year as expected. The inflation pressure on core commodities and services was controllable, and the Fed tended to stay on the sidelines [68]. 3.2.12 US PMI - In June, the US Markit manufacturing PMI was stable at 52, and the service industry PMI was slightly lower. The manufacturing growth was mainly driven by inventory, and the inflation pressure increased significantly [71]. 3.2.13 Weekly Focus - There are important economic indicators and events to be released in the coming week, including the US GDP, FOMC interest rate decision, and China's official and Caixin manufacturing PMIs [73].