Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bias towards a bearish trend, with a driving force for a decline but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Aluminum: ななな (No clear official star - based rating description provided) [1] - Alumina: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bias towards a bearish trend, with a driving force for a decline but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bias towards a bearish trend, with a driving force for a decline but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bias towards a bearish trend, with a driving force for a decline but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ななな (No clear official star - based rating description provided) [1] - Industrial Silicon: ななな (No clear official star - based rating description provided) [1] - Polysilicon: なな☆ (No clear official star - based rating description provided) [1] Core Views - The overall market is affected by factors such as "anti - involution" themes, seasonal demand changes, and supply - demand imbalances in different industries. Different metals and industrial products show various trends, and investment strategies vary according to each product's characteristics [2][3][4] Summary by Metals and Products Copper - On Monday, Shanghai copper closed down, with the spot copper price at 79,075 yuan and the Shanghai flat - water copper premium at 65 yuan. The trading sentiment in the copper market is cautious. The resistance at the upper integer level of copper prices is significant. It is recommended to hold short positions with a light position [2] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum declined today, with the East China spot at par. In the off - season, the negative feedback of falling demand is obvious. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 35,000 tons in the past week. The upper resistance of Shanghai aluminum is at 21,000 yuan. Casting aluminum alloy follows Shanghai aluminum's fluctuations. The scrap aluminum market has a tight supply, and the profit of aluminum alloy is negative. In the short - term, the price is under pressure, but it has certain resilience compared to the aluminum price in the medium - term. The spot price difference between aluminum and casting aluminum alloy remains at about 1,000 yuan. If the price difference on the trading floor widens, consider a long AD and short AL strategy. Recently, the alumina price has risen sharply, and the industry profit has recovered. The production capacity and output have continuously increased, and the industry is in an oversupply state. It is recommended to take a short position near the recent high of 3,500 yuan [3] Zinc - After the fermentation of macro and capital sentiment, the zinc market returns to the fundamental logic. The supply of zinc ore has increased as expected, and the TC in August has further increased. The new production capacity of smelters has been put into operation, and the supply is expected to increase. The consumption has not improved significantly. The upper resistance of Shanghai zinc is at 23,000 yuan. It is recommended to take a short position on rebounds [4] Lead and Stainless Steel - Shanghai silver opened higher and closed lower on Monday. After the "anti - involution" theme hype cooled down, silver with relatively poor fundamentals may return to the fundamentals. The high - nickel iron price is 913 yuan per nickel point, and the upstream price support has weakened. The overall inventory is still at a high level. Wait patiently for the opportunity to take a short position [7] Tin - Shanghai tin closed below 268,000 yuan, and the spot tin price was adjusted to 268,800 yuan. Overseas markets are concerned about the low inventory on the LME and are not optimistic about the long - term trend. Holders of short positions from the previous high can reduce their positions appropriately for risk control [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate fluctuated and hit the daily limit down on Monday. The market rumor that some mining enterprises in Jiangxi have resumed production has affected the market. The total market inventory has reached a recent high of 143,000 tons. The production of the mid - stream has decreased by 3% month - on - month. Technically, the futures price of lithium carbonate is in a deep - water area of the rebound. Above 70,000 yuan, the hedging power increases. Short - sellers should manage their positions [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed down significantly. After the previous sharp rise, the market is in a stage of correction. The trading sentiment has cooled down. With the news of the self - disciplined clearance of small - furnace types in Sichuan, the policy guidance is still expected. The price is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is not advisable to be unilaterally bearish [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures closed down significantly. The terminal is still observing. The monthly supply - demand of polysilicon - silicon wafers is in a tight balance. If the price reaches above 50,000 yuan, the production increase in August needs to be re - evaluated. The market is in a stage of wide - range fluctuation. The support level of PS2509 is temporarily seen at 45,000 - 46,000 yuan/ton. Due to strong policy uncertainty, it is not advisable to be unilaterally bearish. Consider selling out - of - the - money call options [11]
有色金属日报-20250728
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-07-28 13:02