新花生即将上市，花生价格震荡偏弱

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - New peanuts are about to hit the market, and peanut prices are oscillating weakly. The overall peanut prices this week showed a weak adjustment. With the drought in Henan's production area alleviating, traders are accelerating inventory clearance, and there is a strong willingness to clear out lower - quality supplies. The demand side remains weak, with sluggish transactions in the domestic market and strong wait - and - see sentiment among demanders. The short - term downward trend in market price transactions may continue. In the short term, the spot price is likely to remain oscillating weakly, and the long - term market mainly depends on the impact of weather on the growth of new - season peanuts and whether there is a significant improvement in market demand. For futures, the peanut weighted index has been oscillating in the range of 7800 - 8400 for nearly a year. Given the continuous growth of peanut planting area in the past two years and no obvious change in the demand side, the short - term price trend is more likely to oscillate weakly within the range. Trend traders can construct an insurance strategy by combining long futures contracts and buying out - of - the - money put options with a strike price 2 - 3 levels lower. Band traders can buy at the lower end of the range and sell at the upper end, but should pay attention to position management [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Main Viewpoints - New peanuts are about to be launched, and the short - term spot price is likely to oscillate weakly. The long - term market depends on weather and demand. Futures prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. Suggestions for different types of traders are provided [7]. 2. Market Review 2.1 Peanut and Oilseed Sector - The peanut weighted index maintains a narrow - range oscillation, with the buying and selling sides in a relatively balanced state, waiting for the price to break through the small - range. The oilseed sector has encountered some pressure at the upper end of the range, and the key is to see if there is follow - up selling [9][10]. 2.2 Peanut 2510 Contract - Last week, the price of the 2510 contract rose to near the upper end of the range, and then the buying power weakened. This week, the price回调 to near the lower end of the range, showing a short - term weak oscillation pattern [14]. 3. Fundamental Analysis 3.1 Oil Mill Inventory and Operating Rate - The weekly inventory of peanut oil is 39,160 tons, a decrease of 60 tons from the previous month. The operating rate of oil mills is 4.29%, a decrease of about 0.34% compared to last week [17]. 3.2 Peanut Commodity Price (Baisha) - The drought in Henan has eased, and the upcoming launch of new peanuts has accelerated the clearance of lower - quality supplies. The short - term downward trend in market price transactions may continue [20]. 3.3 Peanut Oil Price Trend - The average price of first - grade ordinary peanut oil in the main production areas this week is 15,000 yuan/ton, basically unchanged from last week [24]. 3.4 Peanut Meal Price Trend - The prices of rapeseed meal and soybean meal have fallen back after hitting resistance at the upper end of the range, while the peanut meal price maintains an oscillating pattern [28]. 3.5 Imported Peanuts - The new - crop Sudanese imported refined peanuts are priced at about 8600 - 8700 yuan/ton, and the old - crop at about 8500 yuan/ton, with a slightly weakening price and low inventory and few transactions. Senegalese oil peanuts are priced at about 7800 yuan/ton, and refined peanuts at about 8500 - 8600 yuan/ton, with weak prices and few transactions. African supplies will have few subsequent arrivals. Brazilian high - oleic peanuts of 34/38 specification are priced at 12,000 yuan/ton, and 38/42 specification at 11,500 yuan/ton, with average sales [32]. 3.6 Market Price Index Compared to Last Month - The prices in some domestic markets are slightly weak, with low arrival volumes. Traders mainly consume their previous inventories, and the terminal market sales are slow [35]. 4. Spread Tracking 4.1 Basis Spread - Not elaborated further in the provided content, only the basis chart and data source are given [37][38]