Guoxin Securities·2025-07-28 13:04Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the home appliance industry [4][5][12]. Core Views - The home appliance sector is expected to experience steady growth driven by government subsidies and a recovery in domestic demand, despite challenges in export markets due to tariffs [11][12][18]. - The second quarter saw a decline in the heavy holding ratio of home appliance stocks, with an increase in the black appliance sector's weight [3][11][22]. - The report highlights the positive impact of the third batch of 690 billion yuan in government subsidies on consumer demand for home appliances [2][20]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Recommendations - Key recommendations include Midea Group, Gree Electric, Haier Smart Home, TCL Smart Home, and Hisense Home Appliances in the white goods sector [4][12]. - For kitchen appliances, Boss Electric is recommended, while for small appliances, Bear Electric, Roborock, and Ecovacs are highlighted [12][15]. 2. Market Tracking and Investment Insights - In August, air conditioner production decreased by 7%, with domestic sales entering a seasonal slowdown [1][17]. - The third batch of 690 billion yuan in government subsidies is expected to support strong domestic sales [2][20]. - The heavy holding ratio for home appliance stocks fell to 3.3%, with white goods seeing the largest decline [3][22]. 3. Key Data Tracking - The home appliance sector's relative performance was -1.65% this week compared to the broader market [29]. - Raw material prices showed an increase, with LME copper and aluminum prices rising by 1.2% and 2.3% respectively [32][36]. - Shipping prices have decreased, with the export shipping index for the West America route down by 6.44% [46]. 4. Company Announcements and Industry Dynamics - The report includes forecasts for key companies, indicating stable growth in domestic sales and a recovery in export orders [53][54]. - The overall market for home appliances is expected to benefit from the government's "old for new" policy, which has already led to significant sales increases [20][21].