产业端仍有支撑，短线关注工业品情绪降温对油脂板块的传导

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - Palm oil has support from the industrial side, but short - term attention should be paid to the transmission of the cooling sentiment in the industrial products sector to the oil and fat sector. The overall growth of US soybeans is good, the premium of Brazilian soybeans is firm, and Argentina has lowered the soybean export tax, so CBOT soybeans are running weakly. In July, Malaysian palm oil production increased and exports declined, and it is expected to continue to accumulate inventory at the end of the month. Indonesia's palm oil exports increased in May - June, and domestic sales were boosted by the implementation of biodiesel in line with the annual plan, with inventory stabilizing in May. The vegetable oil inventory in Indian ports increased by 18% in the first half of July, but the market expects an increase in palm oil imports in the second half of the year. In operation, the North American market is waiting for biodiesel news, CBOT soybean oil is consolidating at a high level, and domestic and foreign palm oils are running at a high level supported by good exports from Indonesia. Hold the previous low - position long positions, but be aware of the short - term price correction risk of oils and fats due to the cooling sentiment in the industrial products sector [7][8]. Summary by Directory 1. Main Views - Last week, soybean and palm oils were consolidating at high levels, while rapeseed oil gave back the previous week's gains. In the producing areas, from July 1 - 25, Malaysian palm oil exports decreased by 9 - 15%, and production from July 1 - 20 increased by 6 - 12%. Indonesia's palm oil exports increased by 50% and 30.5% month - on - month in May and June respectively, and the inventory at the end of May decreased by 4.27% to 2.9 million tons. The good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans is 68%, a week - on - week decrease of 2%; the premium of Brazilian soybeans is 155 - 160 cents per bushel; Argentina lowered the soybean export tax from 33% to 26% [7]. - In China, the weekly spot trading of soybean oil was average, and palm oil was mainly for rigid demand. Five new palm oil purchase contracts for August were added last week. Soybean and palm oils have accumulated inventory to 1.09 million tons and 0.57 million tons respectively. The CBOT soybeans are running weakly due to lack of support. Malaysian palm oil is expected to continue to accumulate inventory at the end of July. Indonesia's palm oil exports increased in May - June, and the inventory stopped increasing at the end of May. The vegetable oil inventory in Indian ports increased by 18% in the first half of July, and the market expects an increase in palm oil imports in the second half of the year. In operation, the North American market is waiting for biodiesel news, CBOT soybean oil is consolidating at a high level, and domestic and foreign palm oils are running at a high level. Hold the previous low - position long positions, but be aware of the short - term price correction risk of oils and fats [7][8]. 2. Market Review - Last week, domestic and foreign palm oils and soybean oils fluctuated at high levels, while Zhengzhou rapeseed oil gave back the previous week's gains [10]. 3. Fundamental Analysis - US Soybeans: The good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans is 68%, a week - on - week decrease. The premium of Brazilian soybeans last week was 155 - 162 cents per bushel; Argentina lowered the soybean export tax from 33% to 26% [13]. - Palm Oil: From July 1 - 25, Malaysian palm oil exports decreased by 9 - 15%, and production from July 1 - 20 increased by 6 - 12%. Indonesia's palm oil exports increased by 50% and 30.5% month - on - month in May and June respectively; the inventory at the end of May was 2.9 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.27%. The vegetable oil inventory in Indian ports increased by 18% in the first half of July [13]. - Import and Crushing: In June, China imported 12.264 million tons of soybeans, with a cumulative import of 49.37 million tons from January - June, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. In June, it imported 0.35 million tons of palm oil, with a cumulative import of 1.07 million tons from January - June, a year - on - year decrease of 11.6%. In June, it imported 0.15 million tons of rapeseed oil, with a cumulative import of 1.18 million tons from January - June, a year - on - year increase of 25.7%. In June, it imported 0.1845 million tons of rapeseed, a month - on - month decrease of 45% and a year - on - year decrease of 69.69%. The soybean crushing rate and soybean inventory of oil mills are relatively high; the rapeseed crushing rate of oil mills has rebounded from a low level, and the rapeseed inventory is still low [13]. - Inventory: As of mid - July, soybean oil has accumulated inventory for 12 consecutive weeks to 1.09 million tons; rapeseed oil inventory is 0.73 million tons, a decrease of 0.16 million tons from the previous high; palm oil has continued to increase inventory to 0.57 million tons. The accumulation of soybean and palm oil inventories has driven the total inventory of the three major oils and fats to increase to 2.32 million tons, compared with 1.89 million tons in the same period last year [13][44]. - Spot Price: Last week, the spot prices of oils and fats were narrowly sorted. As of July 25, the price of soybean oil was 8,323 yuan per ton, a slight increase of 0.36% from the previous week; the price of palm oil was 9,080 yuan per ton, a slight increase of 0.33% from the previous week; the price of rapeseed oil was 9,610 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0.93% from the previous week [13][49]. - Demand: The overall spot trading of oils and fats last week was average. The spot trading volume of soybean oil was 83,200 tons, compared with 80,200 tons in the previous week; the trading volume of palm oil was 2,348 tons, compared with 2,448 tons in the previous week; the trading volume of rapeseed oil was 0 tons, compared with 4,500 tons in the previous week [13][52]. 4. Spread Tracking - Not provided in detail in the content