国投期货化工日报-20250728

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Acrylic: ★☆☆, indicating a bearish trend with limited operability [1] - Polyethylene: ☆☆☆, suggesting a balanced short - term trend with poor operability [1] - Pure Benzene: Not rated - Styrene: ☆☆☆, indicating a balanced short - term trend with poor operability [1] - PX: ★☆☆, indicating a bearish trend with limited operability [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆, suggesting a balanced short - term trend with poor operability [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆, indicating a bearish trend with limited operability [1] - Short - fiber: ☆☆☆, suggesting a balanced short - term trend with poor operability [1] - Bottle Chip: ★☆☆, indicating a bearish trend with limited operability [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆, suggesting a balanced short - term trend with poor operability [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆, suggesting a balanced short - term trend with poor operability [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆, suggesting a balanced short - term trend with poor operability [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆, indicating a bearish trend with limited operability [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆☆, indicating a bearish trend with limited operability [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆, suggesting a balanced short - term trend with poor operability [1] Core Views - The chemical market is generally under pressure due to factors such as supply - demand imbalances, seasonal impacts, and policy uncertainties. Different chemical products face various challenges in supply, demand, and price trends [2][3][4][5][6][7] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures declined. There is no significant news, and supply is expected to increase due to device restarts. Downstream demand is mainly for immediate needs, and price support is limited [2] - Polyolefin futures also fell. For polyethylene, demand from the agricultural film industry is improving but slowly, and overall demand support is weak. For polypropylene, new capacity and reduced maintenance will increase supply, and downstream demand is sluggish [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices declined, following a weak trend. Supply - demand is decreasing, and port inventories are rising slightly. There is an expected seasonal improvement in the third - quarter later stage but pressure in the fourth quarter [3] - Styrene futures faced resistance. Oil prices are in a sideways trend, supply is high, and downstream demand is stable but with poor spot trading [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices dropped, with limited fundamental drivers. PTA inventories are increasing, and processing margins need demand recovery [4] - Ethylene glycol prices decreased, affected by external factors and supply changes. Demand is stable, and inventories are slightly decreasing [4] - Short - fiber and bottle - chip prices followed raw material prices down. Short - fiber has a mid - term positive outlook, while bottle - chip has long - term over - capacity issues [4] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures tumbled. Coastal port inventories are unexpectedly decreasing, but imports are expected to increase, and the market may be weak in the long - term [5] - Urea futures declined. Agricultural demand is weakening, and the market is likely to trade in a range in the short - term [5] Chlor - alkali - PVC prices fell from a high. Supply is decreasing due to maintenance, and domestic demand is weak, but external demand is expected to improve [6] - Caustic soda prices weakened. Supply pressure is high in the long - term, and prices are expected to be under pressure [6] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices hit the daily limit down. There is supply pressure, and it is a long - term short - selling target [7] - Glass prices also hit the daily limit down. Market sentiment is cooling, and prices are unlikely to rise significantly without supply reduction [7]