玉米周报：美玉米震荡偏弱，国内低位震荡-20250728

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - This week, corn prices were in a low - level oscillation. Abroad, as of July 22, the drought - affected area of US corn remained at 9%, and the good - to - excellent rate remained at 74%, in line with expectations. As of the week ending July 17, the net export sales of US corn were 1.38 million tons, also in line with expectations, and the US corn futures oscillated weakly. Domestically, wheat harvesting is basically over, and reserve depots in many places have entered the market to purchase, supporting wheat prices. Corn is in the off - season between harvests. Recently, auctions of imported corn have continued, but the transaction rate has gradually declined. Meanwhile, the number of trucks arriving at Shandong processing enterprises is generally low, and the short - term corn spot price has stopped falling. In terms of demand, current feed enterprises have relatively sufficient inventories, and the off - season of aquaculture demand restricts restocking. Feed enterprises purchase as needed. Corn processing is also entering the off - season, and processing profits remain at a low level. The strategy is that with multiple factors at play, the US corn market oscillates weakly. In China, the purchase by reserves supports the firm wheat price. The short - term low supply of corn supports the spot price, while the continued auction of imported corn and the existing bearish sentiment in the market lead to an oscillating corn futures market. In the medium - to - long - term, as grain sources gradually shift to channels, channel merchants hold back supplies, port inventories are continuously consumed, imported corn remains low, and downstream demand recovers, there is still a supply - demand gap in the third quarter. However, the supply pressure in the fourth quarter is still high, and corn prices may rise first and then fall [7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - The CBOT12 corn closed at 419.00 cents per bushel, down 9.00 points from last week's close, a weekly decline of 2.10%. The C2509 corn closed at 2,311 yuan per ton, down 3 points from last week's close, a weekly decline of 0.13% [9] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 External Market - Weather: In the next two weeks, rainfall in US soybean - producing areas is average, and the temperature is low [14] - Growth: As of the week ending July 20, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US corn was 74%, in line with market expectations, the same as the previous week and higher than 67% in the same period last year. As of the same week, the silking rate was 56%, up from 34% the previous week but lower than 58% last year and the five - year average. The dough stage rate was 14%, up from 7% the previous week, lower than 16% last year but higher than the five - year average of 12%. As of the week ending July 22, about 9% of US corn - growing areas were affected by drought, the same as the previous week and higher than 4% last year [23] - Export: As of the week ending July 17, the net export sales of US corn in the 2024/2025 season were 643,000 tons, up from 98,000 tons the previous week; in the 2025/2026 season, the net sales were 734,000 tons, up from 566,000 tons the previous week [27] 3.2.2 Domestic Inventory - Feed Enterprises: As of July 24, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 30.87 days, down 0.47 days from last week, a month - on - month decline of 1.50% and a year - on - year increase of 0.68% [31] - Deep - processing Enterprises: From July 17 to July 23, 2025, 149 major domestic corn deep - processing enterprises consumed a total of 1.0624 million tons of corn, a decrease of 38,100 tons from the previous week. Affected by weak downstream demand, the processing profit of corn starch weakened again. As of July 23, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 4.005 million tons, a decrease of 6.21% [36][40] - Port Inventory: As of July 18, 2025, the total corn inventory of the four northern ports was 2.209 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 97,000 tons; the shipping volume of the four northern ports was 340,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 262,000 tons. In Guangdong Port, the domestic corn inventory was 940,000 tons, an increase of 102,000 tons from last week; the foreign - trade inventory was 10,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from last week; the imported sorghum was 481,000 tons, a decrease of 21,000 tons from last week; the imported barley was 395,000 tons, an increase of 42,000 tons from last week [42] 3.3 Spread Tracking No specific analysis content provided, only the spread types such as the 9 - 1 spread of corn, the starch - to - corn spread, the corn basis, and the wheat - to - corn spread are mentioned [45][46]