Report Investment Rating - No industry investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The bond market is under triple pressure, but a short - term small - scale rally may be expected. The bond market sentiment was suppressed due to the triple factors of the "anti - involution" sentiment driving up commodity prices, the continuous improvement of the stock market diverting funds, and the marginal improvement of some macro signals boosting risk appetite. From July 21st to 25th, the bond market underwent a rapid adjustment, with the yields of government bonds, policy - bank bonds, local government bonds, and credit bonds of all tenors rising across the board. Currently, there is a phased bullish view on the bond market, and the 10Y government bond yield may return to around 1.65%. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will significantly cut interest rates in 2026, presenting prominent opportunities in short - to medium - term US Treasury bonds [3][11][83]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro News - From January to June this year, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China was 3.44 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%. The total operating income was 66.78 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%, and the operating cost was 57.12 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. The operating profit margin was 5.15%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.22pct. On July 19th, the construction ceremony of the Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project was held. The project has a total investment of about 12 trillion yuan and a total installed capacity of about 60 million kilowatts. On December 18, 2025, the full - island customs closure of Hainan Free Trade Port will be officially launched. The scope of "zero - tariff" goods will be expanded to about 74% of all commodity tariff items, an increase of nearly 53 percentage points compared to before the closure. On July 23rd (local time), US President Trump stated that he would impose simple tariffs of 15% to 50% on most other countries in the world. On July 24th (local time), EU member states overwhelmingly passed a decision to impose tariffs on US products worth 93 billion euros [12][15]. 2. Medium - term High - frequency Data 2.1 Consumption - As of July 20th, the daily average retail volume of passenger car manufacturers was 58,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 16.8%, and the daily average wholesale volume was 58,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. As of July 25th, the total box office revenue of domestic movies in the past 7 days was 984.43 million yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 33.6% but an increase of 110.2% compared to a month ago. As of July 11th, the total retail volume of three major household appliances was 2.471 million units, a year - on - year increase of 26.5%, and the total retail sales were 5.81 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 28.9% [13][21]. 2.2 Transportation - As of July 20th, the container throughput of ports was 6.642 million TEUs, a year - on - year increase of 5.2%. As of July 25th, the CCFI composite index was 1261.4, a year - on - year decrease of 42.2%. The average daily subway passenger volume in first - tier cities in the past 7 days was 39.519 million person - times, a year - on - year decrease of 2.2% but an increase of 1.0% compared to a month ago. As of July 20th, the postal express pick - up volume was 3.67 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 13.8% but a decrease of 10.0% compared to 4 weeks ago. The railway freight volume was 80.488 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.8%, and the highway truck traffic volume was 53.431 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 2.0% [26][28][31]. 2.3 Capacity Utilization - As of July 23rd, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of major steel enterprises in China was 77.6%, a year - on - year increase of 2.3 percentage points. As of July 24th, the average asphalt capacity utilization rate was 26.0%, a year - on - year increase of 3.0 percentage points. As of July 24th, the soda ash capacity utilization rate was 82.8%, a year - on - year decrease of 6.5 percentage points, and the PVC capacity utilization rate was 74.9%, a year - on - year increase of 1.8 percentage points. As of July 25th, the average PX capacity utilization rate was 80.8%, and the average PTA capacity utilization rate was 80.7% [34][37]. 2.4 Real Estate - As of July 18th, the transaction area of second - hand houses in 9 sample cities decreased by 16.0% compared to 4 weeks ago. As of July 25th, the total transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities in the past 7 days was 1.564 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 5.6% [41][42]. 2.5 Prices - As of July 25th, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.7 yuan per kilogram, a year - on - year decrease of 17.5% but an increase of 2.4% compared to 4 weeks ago. The average wholesale price of vegetables was 4.4 yuan per kilogram, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3% but an increase of 0.5% compared to 4 weeks ago. The average wholesale price of 6 key fruits was 7.1 yuan per kilogram, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6% and a decrease of 4.2% compared to 4 weeks ago. The average price of thermal coal at northern ports was 641 yuan per ton, a year - on - year decrease of 24.5% but an increase of 4.7% compared to 4 weeks ago. The average spot price of WTI crude oil was 65.7 US dollars per barrel, a year - on - year decrease of 15.7% and a decrease of 2.5% compared to 4 weeks ago. The average spot price of rebar was 3310.4 yuan per ton, a year - on - year increase of 2.6% and an increase of 7.9% compared to 4 weeks ago. The average spot price of iron ore was 799.6 yuan per ton, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7% but an increase of 10.8% compared to 4 weeks ago. The average spot price of glass was 15.1 yuan per square meter, a year - on - year decrease of 14.8% but an increase of 9.2% compared to 4 weeks ago [46][49][54]. 3. Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets - On July 25th, R001 was 1.55%, up 15.10BP from July 21st; R007 was 1.69%, up 19.60BP from July 21st. DR001 was 1.52%, up 15.65BP from July 21st; DR007 was 1.65%, up 16.22BP from July 21st. Most government bond yields rose. On July 25th, the yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year government bonds were 1.39%, 1.59%, 1.73%, and 1.98% respectively, up 4.1BP, 6.0BP, 6.8BP, and 8.7BP respectively from July 18th. The yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year policy - bank bonds were 1.52%, 1.70%, 1.81%, and 2.08% respectively, up 4.6BP, 9.5BP, 9.0BP, and 5.2BP respectively from July 18th. The yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year local government bonds were 1.44%, 1.67%, and 1.83% respectively, up 5.2BP, 6.2BP, and 6.1BP respectively from July 18th. The yields of 1 - month and 1 - year AAA and AA + inter - bank certificates of deposit were 1.57%, 1.67%, 1.58%, and 1.70% respectively, up 6.0BP, 5.3BP, 6.0BP, and 5.3BP respectively from July 18th. As of July 25th, 2025, the 10 - year government bond yields of the US, Japan, the UK, and Germany were 4.4%, 1.6%, 4.6%, and 2.8% respectively, down 4BP, up 8BP, down 4BP, and up 6BP respectively from July 18th. On July 25th, the central parity rate and spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan were 7.14 and 7.17 respectively, down 79 and 87 pips respectively from July 18th [56][61][70]. 4. Institutional Behavior - As of July 27th, the net - loss rate of public - offering wealth management products of wealth management companies was about 1.2%, down 0.77 percentage points from 1.97% at the beginning of the year, and the current percentile of the net - loss rate within the year was 36.7%. Since the beginning of 2025, the duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds investing in interest - rate bonds has shown a trend of first decreasing and then increasing, with a slight decline in the past week. On July 25th, 2025, the estimated average duration was about 5.3 years, a decrease of about 0.17 years compared to the previous week (July 18th), and the weekly data showed the first decline since early May. The duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds investing in credit bonds has shown a fluctuating trend since the beginning of 2025, and has risen rapidly in the past two weeks. On July 25th, 2025, the estimated median duration was about 2.5 years, and the estimated average duration was about 2.6 years, an increase of about 0.3 years compared to the previous week (July 18th) [77][80][81]. 5. Investment Recommendations - Currently, there is a phased bullish view on the bond market, and the 10Y government bond yield may return to around 1.65%. In 2025, there is no trend - based bond market rally, so it is advisable to take profits in a timely manner. Due to the rapid adjustment of the bond market and the rapid reduction of the duration of bond funds, it is believed that the bond market risks may have been mitigated. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will significantly cut interest rates in 2026, presenting prominent opportunities in short - to medium - term US Treasury bonds [83].
利率周报：债市陷三重压制，但短期或迎小行情-20250728
Hua Yuan Zheng Quan·2025-07-28 13:18