固收&宏观周报：大宗涨价，债市有所调整-20250728

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report indicates a continued optimistic view of the bond market and A-share structural opportunities, but does not explicitly provide a specific industry investment rating [12] Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that the substantial price increases of commodities are driven by the dual positive factors of heightened expectations for supply-side reform and increased demand from the Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Project. The bond market is not significantly affected by the commodity price hikes, and the short - term adjustment presents an opportunity to go long on the bond market. In the stock market, the Politburo meeting at the end of July may introduce pro - growth policies, and the upcoming Sino - US economic and trade talks in Sweden are expected to keep investors' risk appetite at a relatively high level. There are still investment opportunities in sectors such as rare earths, artificial intelligence, innovative drugs, and commodities [12] Summary by Related Content Stock Market Performance - US Stocks: In the past week (20250721 - 20250727), the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average changed by 1.02%, 1.46%, and 1.26% respectively. The Nasdaq China Technology Index changed by 1.91%, and the Hang Seng Index changed by 2.27% [3] - A - shares: The Wind All - A Index rose 2.21%. Among them, the CSI A100, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI 2000, and Wind Micro - cap stocks changed by 2.29%, 1.69%, 3.28%, 1.81%, and 3.63% respectively. In terms of sector styles, both blue - chip and growth stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets rose, with the Shanghai Composite 50 and STAR Market 50 changing by 1.12% and 4.63% respectively, and the Shenzhen Component 100 and ChiNext Index changing by 2.12% and 2.76% respectively. The North Exchange 50 Index changed by 2.85% [4] - Industry Performance: Among the 30 CITIC industries, 4 declined and 26 rose. Leading industries included coal, steel, non - ferrous metals, building materials, and construction, with weekly gains exceeding 6%. In terms of ETF performance, rare metals, coal, building materials, non - ferrous metals, and Hong Kong securities performed well, with weekly gains above 7% [4] Bond Market Performance - Interest - rate Bonds: In the past week (20250721 - 20250727), the 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract fell 0.56% compared to July 18, 2025. The yield of the 10 - year active Treasury bond rose 6.72 BP to 1.7324%. Yields of maturities of 6 months and above increased, with longer - term yields rising more, making the yield curve steeper [5] - Funding Costs: As of July 25, 2025, R007 was 1.6937%, up 18.65 BP from July 18, 2025, and DR007 was 1.6523%, up 14.56 BP. The spread between them widened. The central bank conducted a net withdrawal of 70.5 billion yuan through open - market operations (reverse repurchase operations and central bank bill swaps) in the past week [6] - Bond Market Leverage: The bond market leverage level increased. The 5 - day average of inter - bank pledged repurchase volume increased from 7.24 trillion yuan on July 18, 2025, to 7.70 trillion yuan on July 25, 2025. As of July 25, 2025, the spreads between the yields of 5Y, 10Y, and 30Y Treasury bonds and IRS007 were - 14.52, - 1.76, and 22.25 BP respectively [7] - US Treasury Bonds: In the past week (20250721 - 20250727), US Treasury yields showed a pattern of short - term increases and long - term decreases. As of July 25, 2025, the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell 4 BP to 4.40%. Yields of maturities of 3 years and below increased, while those of other maturities decreased, making the yield curve flatter [7][9] Currency and Commodity Markets - US Dollar: The US dollar index fell 0.80% in the past week (20250721 - 20250727). The US dollar against the euro, pound, and yen changed by - 1.00%, - 0.19%, and - 0.76% respectively. The US dollar against the offshore and onshore RMB exchange rates fell 0.18% and 0.12% respectively [10] - Gold: In the past week (20250721 - 20250727), international gold prices fell, with the London gold spot price down 0.35% to $3343.5 per ounce and the COMEX gold futures price down 0.61% to $3329.1 per ounce. Domestic gold prices rose, with the Shanghai gold spot up 0.09% to 774.21 yuan per gram and the futures up 0.01% to 774.70 yuan per gram [10] Trade Negotiations - The US has reached trade agreements with the Philippines, Japan, and the EU. The US and the EU reached a 15% tariff agreement on July 27, 2025. Sino - US economic and trade talks will be held in Sweden from July 27 - 30, 2025, and their progress is worthy of attention [11]