汇率：中间价释放升值信号、资金押注补涨

Exchange Rate Trends - The RMB central parity rate has shown a gradual appreciation since July, with the rate breaking 7.14, indicating a strong upward signal[2] - The USD/CNY exchange rate has fluctuated around 7.17, reflecting a "strong central rate, weak spot rate" dynamic[7] - The central parity rate has increased by 0.23% since July 1, 2025, reaching a low of 7.1385, the lowest since November 2024[7] Cross-Border Capital Flows - In the first half of 2025, the net inflow of foreign exchange was $30.89 billion, with a trade surplus of $43.57 billion from January to June[24] - The average active settlement rate for export enterprises was 47.13% in the first half of 2025, down from 48.37% in the same period of 2024[26] - The forward settlement scale increased by $44.33 billion from April to June 2025, indicating expectations of RMB appreciation[28] Foreign Investment and Market Sentiment - Foreign investment in domestic stocks and funds reached a net increase of $10.1 billion in the first half of 2025, reversing a two-year trend of net selling[34] - The net inflow from securities investment projects was $18.06 billion in the first half of 2025, with a surplus of $7.736 billion in June alone[38] Risk Factors - Potential risks include fluctuating U.S. tariff policies, unclear Federal Reserve interest rate paths, and the impact of non-U.S. currency movements on the RMB[40] - The average holding cost of the "waiting for settlement" funds is approximately 7.05, with a total scale of about $400 billion as of June 2025[32]