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债券策略周报:8月债市还有机会吗-20250728
Minsheng Securities·2025-07-28 15:31

Group 1 - The report indicates that the recent adjustment in the bond market has led to a significant rise in the 10-year government bond yield, which has increased by over 10 basis points to around 1.75% [1][12][51] - Historical patterns suggest that similar rapid increases in interest rates typically occur during periods of policy tightening or improved economic expectations. Although inflation expectations have risen, the primary driver for the current bond yield increase is the unexpected rise in commodity prices [1][12][51] - The report forecasts limited upward movement in bond yields in the short term, with the 10-year government bond yield expected to fluctuate between 1.65% and 1.80% in August. Investors are advised to focus on potential rebound opportunities due to the high level of unrealized losses in 10-year bonds [1][12][51] Group 2 - The report discusses the current state of the yield curve, noting that it is relatively flat historically, with limited potential for steepening due to insufficient monetary easing. The report suggests that the yield curve's shape is increasingly influenced by long-term rates [13][54] - Three potential paths for the yield curve to steepen are identified: 1) Central bank announcements of bond purchases, 2) Further easing of funding rates, and 3) Stronger-than-expected economic performance [54][55] - From a portfolio construction perspective, the report recommends an "barbell" strategy, favoring a mix of 2-3 year credit bonds and long-end active bonds, while only considering bullet strategies if there is significant potential for steepening in the yield curve [55][56] Group 3 - The report highlights specific bond selection strategies, indicating that for long-term bonds, attention should be given to bonds such as 230023 and 25T5, while mid-term bonds like 250003, 250405, and 250415 are also recommended [4][19][20] - In the context of credit bonds, the report notes a recent increase in credit spreads, suggesting improved holding value for credit bonds. It recommends maintaining a small position in long-term credit bonds, particularly in the 7-8 year range, while monitoring for potential adjustments based on funding conditions and interest rate movements [20][21] - The report also emphasizes the importance of monitoring the performance of government bond futures, which have shown a significant decline compared to cash bonds, indicating a favorable hedging value [5][21]