人身险预定利率再降，利好负债成本改善

Investment Rating - The insurance industry is rated as "Recommended" [1] Core Viewpoints - The adjustment of the preset interest rates for life insurance products by major insurance companies is expected to stabilize market expectations and improve liability costs [2][3] - The current preset interest rate for ordinary life insurance products is set at 1.99%, with the maximum preset interest rate for ordinary products reduced from 2.5% to 2.0%, for participating products from 2.0% to 1.75%, and for universal products from 1.5% to 1.0% [1][2] Summary by Sections Event Overview - On July 25, the China Insurance Industry Association held a meeting where experts discussed the preset interest rates for life insurance products, leading to significant adjustments by major insurers [1] - The preset interest rate for ordinary life insurance products has been above the research value for two consecutive quarters, triggering the need for adjustments [2] Analysis and Judgment - The rapid and substantial reduction in preset interest rates by leading insurers is seen as a response to market trends, with the 5-year LPR and fixed deposit rates having decreased significantly since 2023 [3] - The adjustment is expected to reduce the frequency of product switches and stabilize market expectations, allowing insurers to prepare for future business plans more effectively [3] Short-term and Long-term Impacts - In the short term, the impact of "炒停售" (speculative buying and selling) is expected to weaken, while in the long term, the adjustments are likely to benefit the transformation towards participating insurance products and reduce liability costs [4] - The lower preset interest rates for participating products compared to ordinary products may enhance their competitive advantage, promoting further transformation in the insurance sector [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Key companies in the insurance sector are projected to have strong earnings growth, with specific EPS and P/E ratios provided for major insurers such as China Ping An, China Life, and China Pacific Insurance [6]