格林大华期货早盘提示-20250729

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term trend of treasury bond futures may be volatile, and trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - On Monday, the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened higher collectively. By the close, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2509 rose 0.56%, the 10 - year T2509 rose 0.18%, the 5 - year TF2509 rose 0.13%, and the 2 - year TS2509 rose 0.04% [1] Important Information - In the open market, the central bank conducted 495.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Monday, with 170.7 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net investment of 325.1 billion yuan [1] - In the money market, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank money market declined on Monday. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.46% (previous 1.52%), and the weighted average of DR007 was 1.58% (previous 1.65%) [1] - In the cash bond market, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds mostly declined on Monday. The 2 - year yield fell 2.00 BP to 1.42%, the 5 - year fell 2.00 BP to 1.58%, the 10 - year fell 1.78 BP to 1.71%, and the 30 - year fell 2.00 BP to 1.95% [1] - On July 28th local time, the economic and trade teams of China and the United States held economic and trade talks in Stockholm, Sweden [1] - Europe and the United States reached a trade agreement, agreeing to accept a 15% tariff on most US exports to the EU [1] Market Logic - On July 18th, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced that multiple anti - involution and stable - growth policies would be introduced, boosting the risk appetite of the financial market. Last week, the Wind All - A stock index rose continuously, as did the prices of commodity futures mainly for domestic demand, while treasury bond futures fell continuously [1] - Since July, the decline rate of the national new - home sales area has accelerated, and the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) declined slightly in the first half of July, with a faster decline on the US - West route. The economic fundamentals still face challenges in terms of demand [1] - The implementation of anti - involution policies may be relatively mild, optimizing supply and increasing some prices, but the short - term reaction in the commodity futures market was too intense. On Monday, commodity futures led by coking coal fell sharply after a continuous sharp rise last week, the market risk appetite declined relatively, and treasury bond futures prices rebounded significantly [1] - Vice - Premier He Lifeng will hold economic and trade talks with the US in Sweden from July 27th to 30th, and the results are worthy of attention. There is also an important Politburo meeting this week [1]