研究所晨会观点精萃-20250729

Group 1: Report General Information - Analysts include Jialijun, Mingdaoyu, Liuhuifeng, etc., each with corresponding qualification numbers, contact phones, and email addresses [1][2] - The report is the Morning Meeting View Summary of the Research Institute on July 29, 2025 [2] Group 2: Macroeconomic and Financial Situation - Overseas, the US - EU trade agreement and Sino - US trade talks boost market sentiment, weaken risk - aversion demand, and strengthen the US dollar. Domestically, China's H1 economic growth is higher than expected, but June consumption and investment slow down. The introduction of the national childcare subsidy policy may boost consumption [2] - For assets, the stock index is expected to be short - term volatile and slightly stronger, with short - term cautious long positions. Treasury bonds are expected to have a short - term high - level volatile correction, and cautious observation is recommended. In the commodity sector, black metals have large short - term fluctuations, non - ferrous metals have a short - term volatile correction, energy and chemicals are short - term volatile, and precious metals are short - term high - level volatile, all requiring cautious observation [2] Group 3: Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as components, military industry, and film and television theaters, the domestic stock market rises slightly. The short - term macro - upward drive is enhanced, and attention should be paid to Sino - US trade talks and domestic incremental policies. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3] Group 4: Precious Metals - Precious metals are under pressure due to the reaching of multiple trade agreements. The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged this week, and the market maintains the expectation of a September rate cut. Precious metals are short - term volatile and weak, but the medium - to - long - term upward pattern remains unchanged, and the strategic allocation value of gold is prominent [3] Group 5: Black Metals Steel - The steel futures and spot markets decline, and the trading volume is low. After the Dalian Commodity Exchange's position - limit measures on coking coal, market sentiment turns pessimistic. The apparent consumption and production of five major steel products decline. Steel supply has limited short - term recovery space, and the market should be treated with a short - term correction mindset [4] Iron Ore - Iron ore futures and spot prices continue to decline. Iron ore demand has limited room for growth, and ports have sufficient medium - grade powder. The global iron ore shipment volume rebounds, but the arrival volume continues to decline. Iron ore prices are expected to be short - term volatile and weak [5][6] Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - Silicon iron and silicon manganese spot prices are flat, but the futures prices decline significantly. The operating rate of silicon manganese enterprises decreases slightly, and the production of southern factories is unprofitable. The production rhythm of main - producing areas is stable, and the sentiment of raising prices is strong [7] Soda Ash - The soda ash futures contract falls sharply. Supply is in an over - supply pattern, downstream demand is weak, and profits decline. Although there are concerns about capacity exit, the long - term price is still suppressed [8] Glass - The glass futures contract falls sharply. Supply pressure increases during the off - season, and there are expectations of production cuts. Terminal real estate demand is weak, and profits increase slightly. The price is high and then falls, and observation is recommended [8] Group 6: Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - Trade agreements between the US and Europe and the US and Japan may boost market sentiment, but high tariffs restrict the rise of commodities. The key to copper price trends lies in the tariff implementation time. If tariffs are implemented before August 1, copper prices will weaken [9] Aluminum - Aluminum prices fall due to the large decline in alumina and the weakening of other varieties. The fundamentals are weak, and inventory accumulates. The impact of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's policy is limited, and short - selling is not recommended for the time being [10] Aluminum Alloy - The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and production costs rise. Enterprises turn from profit to loss, and some reduce production. It is in the off - season, and demand is weak. Prices are expected to be short - term volatile and slightly strong, but the upside space is limited [10] Tin - The combined operating rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi continues to rise, and the supply of tin ore tends to be loose. Terminal demand is weak, and inventory accumulates slightly. Tin prices are expected to be short - term volatile, and the medium - term upside is restricted [11] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures contracts hit the daily limit down. Production decreases, and inventory accumulates. Due to the overall weakening of the commodity market and policy adjustments, short - term observation is recommended [12] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures contract hits the daily limit down. Production increases, and inventory slowly decreases. Pay attention to the overall commodity market sentiment, and a short - term short and long - term long strategy is recommended [13][14] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures contract falls significantly. The prices of related products are mixed. Pay attention to the overall commodity market sentiment, and a short - term short and long - term long strategy is recommended [14] Group 7: Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Tensions between the US and Russia may threaten crude oil supply. The market is re - evaluating supply risks, and short - term fluctuations due to sanctions should be watched out for [15] Asphalt - The asphalt futures contract stabilizes after a decline. Inventory slightly decreases, and demand is average. The basis is stable, and the spot situation is general. The upside space of the futures price is limited [15] PX - The tight supply pattern of PX continues, but the external price falls. The PX - to - naphtha spread remains stable, but the PTA processing fee is at a low level, which may lead to downstream negative feedback [15] PTA - PTA prices decline with the market. The new device is about to operate, and downstream demand is weak. Although there are expectations of demand recovery, short - term inventory accumulation and price fluctuations continue [16] Ethylene Glycol - Ethylene glycol port inventory slightly decreases, but the price falls due to the overall market decline. There are expectations of the resumption of domestic plants, and the price will continue to fluctuate in the short term [16][17] Short - Fiber - Short - fiber prices fall due to the overall market decline. Terminal orders are average, and inventory decreases slightly. The price is expected to follow the polyester end and may be short - sold on rallies [17] Methanol - The methanol futures contract falls. The upside is restricted by factors such as device restart and profit compression, while the downside is supported by coal costs. It is expected to return to the oscillation range, and waiting for policy implementation is recommended [17] PP - PP prices fall after a rebound. Multiple policies support prices, but supply is loose, and demand is weak. It is expected to be volatile and weak [18] LLDPE - The polyethylene futures contract corrects. Short - term fluctuations are affected by policies, and the long - term supply is in an over - supply pattern. Prices are expected to be short - term volatile and long - term weak [18] Group 8: Agricultural Products US Soybeans - US soybean futures prices fall. The export inspection volume meets expectations, and the growing conditions are good. The excellent - good rate, flowering rate, and pod - setting rate are all better than expected [19] Soybean Meal/Rapeseed Meal - Sino - US trade talks affect the US soybean market. If the US soybean production increase is stable, it may drag down the domestic soybean meal market. Domestic soybean meal inventory accumulates, and the basis is weak [20] Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil - Palm oil prices face pressure at high levels, and soybean oil prices rise, but the fundamentals lack support. The spot trading of soybean oil is light, and inventory accumulates. The inventory of rapeseed oil decreases [21] Palm Oil - Palm oil prices are in a bull market but face increasing resistance. Domestic inventory accumulates, and there is pressure for selling hedging. Malaysian palm oil production increases, and exports decline, with strong inventory - accumulation expectations [22]