软商品日报：受油价上涨等因素支撑，棉花高位震荡-20250729

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both sugar and cotton is "sideways" [1] Core Viewpoints - Sugar: Affected by consecutive droughts from autumn to spring, the emergence and early growth of sugarcane in Guangxi are unfavorable, with the growth and number of plants shorter and fewer than the same period last year. The growth of sugar beets is generally good, but there has been excessive rainfall in the Inner Mongolia production area recently, which is prone to pests and diseases and requires early prevention. Internationally, the progress of sugar production in Brazil and the growth of sugar crops in the Northern Hemisphere need to be continuously monitored [1] - Cotton: Most cotton production areas in China have entered the budding to flowering stage, with the growth progress 4 to 7 days ahead of previous years. According to the climate forecast of the China Meteorological Administration, the temperature in Xinjiang will continue to be high in July, and the number of high - temperature days will exceed the same period in previous years, exposing cotton to a high risk of heat damage. Currently, the total cotton inventory is continuously decreasing, but the downstream market shows obvious off - season characteristics, and textile enterprises are cautious in raw material procurement. Therefore, the impact of weather changes and tariff uncertainties needs to be continuously monitored [1] Data Summary Price Data - Outer - market Quotes: From July 27 to 28, 2025, the price of US sugar increased by 0.92% from 16.28 to 16.43 US dollars, and the price of US cotton increased by 0.10% from 68.23 to 68.3 US dollars [3] - Spot Prices: From July 25 to 28, 2025, the price of sugar in Nanning remained unchanged at 6050.0 yuan, the price of sugar in Kunming decreased by 0.08% from 5920.0 to 5915.0 yuan, the cotton index 328 decreased by 0.39% from 3281 to 3280, and the price of cotton in Xinjiang decreased by 0.32% from 15450.0 to 15400.0 yuan [3] Spread Data - From July 27 to 28, 2025, most sugar and cotton spreads showed a downward trend, with the SR09 - 01 spread decreasing by 15.88% and the CF09 - 01 spread decreasing by 81.82%. However, the basis of sugar 09 and cotton 01, 05, 09 showed an upward trend, with the basis of sugar 09 increasing by 59.09% [3] Import and Profit Data - From July 25 to 28, 2025, the import price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged at 79.2, and the import profit of sugar remained unchanged at 1641.5 [3] Option and Volatility Data - The implied volatility of SR509C5800 is 0.0868, and the historical volatility of its futures underlying SR509 is 6.89; the implied volatility of CF509C14000 is 0.1383, and the historical volatility of its futures underlying CF509 is 8.52 [3] Warehouse Receipt Data - From July 25 to 28, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased by 2.38% from 20642.0 to 20150.0, and the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased by 0.42% from 9265.0 to 9226.0 [3] Company Information - The report is produced by Cinda Futures Co., Ltd., a wholly - owned subsidiary of Cinda Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million yuan. It is a large - scale and high - reputation futures company in China, with memberships in multiple exchanges and observer status in relevant associations [8]