多空博弈进入深水区，等待价格企稳

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend rating for coke is bullish, and for coking coal is also bullish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, macro uncertainties increase and market sentiment fluctuates greatly. Next week, the market is likely to experience significant volatility. If bulls exit en masse, coking coal may be weak in the coming period; if there is a stalemate between bulls and bears and the price can oscillate at a high level, coking coal is still expected to reach a new high after the sentiment is released [4] - For coking coal, the mine - end production resumes slowly, downstream replenishment enthusiasm is high, and spot transactions remain at a high level. Mines' inventory is continuously transferred to downstream. For coke, the fourth round of price increase is likely to be implemented soon, and there are still expectations for further price increases. The demand for coke remains resilient [3][4] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coking Coal 3.1.1 Spot and Futures - Spot is strong, futures decline. Mongolian 5 prime coking coal is reported at 1,200 yuan/ton (unchanged), the active contract is reported at 1,100.5 yuan/ton (-158.5). The basis is +119.5 yuan/ton (+118.5), and the 9 - 1 month spread is -79.5 yuan/ton (-20) [1] 3.1.2 Supply and Demand - Both supply and demand increase slightly. The operating rate of 523 mines is reported at 86.9% (+0.83), the operating rate of 110 coal washing plants is reported at 62.31% (-0.54), and the productivity of 230 independent coking enterprises is reported at 73.61% (+0.71) [2] 3.1.3 Inventory - Upstream destocks, downstream restocks. The clean coal inventory of 523 mines is reported at 278.44 million tons (-60.63), the clean coal inventory of coal washing plants is 175.61 million tons (-15.93). The inventory of 247 steel mills is 799.51 million tons (+8.41), the inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 841.21 million tons (+51.02), and the port inventory is 292.34 million tons (-29.16) [2] 3.2 Coke 3.2.1 Spot and Futures - Spot prices are expected to rise, futures decline. Tianjin Port's quasi - first - grade coke is reported at 1,370 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the fourth round of price increase is likely to be implemented soon. The active contract is reported at 1,763 yuan/ton (+28). The basis is -135 yuan/ton (+154.5), and the 9 - 1 month spread is -42 yuan/ton (+6) [3] 3.2.2 Supply and Demand - Demand remains high, supply increases slightly. The productivity of 230 independent coking enterprises is reported at 73.61% (+0.71). The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is reported at 90.81% (-0.08), and the average daily pig iron output is 242.23 million tons (-0.21) [3] 3.2.3 Inventory - Upstream destocks, downstream restocks. The inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 50.12 million tons (-5.43), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 639.98 million tons (+0.99), and the port inventory is 198.13 million tons (-0.98) [3] 3.3 Strategy Recommendations - Hold J09 and JM09 long positions lightly this week and wait for the price to stabilize before re - entering the market [4][5]