豆粕周报：主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力-20250729

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Bean Meal: It is expected to be in a large - range oscillation. The domestic soybean and bean meal are in the inventory - accumulation stage until the end of September, with the inventory - accumulation speed in August expected to slow down compared to July. Sino - US trade tariffs are the key cost support for bean meal. In the face of weak fundamentals and cost support, it should be treated as a large - range market. Attention should be paid to the results of this week's Sino - US trade negotiations [1][3]. - Rapeseed Meal: It is also expected to be in a large - range oscillation. Global rapeseed production has recovered year - on - year, but soil moisture in some areas of Canadian rapeseed is dry. In the domestic market, rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories in oil mills are decreasing, but still at a relatively high level year - on - year. High tariffs and low imports support the price, but the improving import profit of Canadian rapeseed exerts upward pressure. The low price difference between bean meal and rapeseed meal in the spot market is not conducive to consumption. Attention should be paid to the improvement of Sino - Canadian relations and Sino - Australian progress [1][5]. - Palm Oil: Caution should be exercised when chasing long positions. The July USDA supply - demand report lowered the global palm oil ending inventory for the new year, and India's palm oil imports increased by 61.19% in June, which is positive for the market. Indonesia's plan to achieve the B40 target and conduct B50 research is also positive. However, after a series of positive factors, the market may return to the July fundamentals, and there is a possibility of inventory accumulation in July. There is a risk of price correction in the next one to two weeks, and opportunities to go long after price stabilization can be considered [1][7]. - Cotton: A cautious bearish view is taken. In the international market, the drought in the US cotton - growing areas has slightly affected the soil moisture, but the overall cotton situation is still good. In the domestic market, the sown area and yield per unit of new cotton have increased, but there may be potential weather disturbances in August. The commercial inventory is decreasing rapidly, but the replenishment power of downstream products has slowed down. The demand from textile enterprises is at a five - year low, and attention should be paid to high - selling opportunities and the 11 - 1 reverse spread [1][11]. - Red Dates: A cautious bearish view is also taken. The growth of new - season jujube trees is good, and the expected significant yield reduction due to the "alternate - bearing" phenomenon has not occurred. High inventory persists, and it is difficult to accelerate inventory reduction under weak demand. The implementation of the floor - purchase orders by some enterprises is limited, and it is recommended to be cautious when short - selling at high prices [1][14]. - Live Pigs: A cautious bullish view is held. In the short term, the slowdown of the live - pig slaughter rhythm and the pressure - holding and reluctant - to - sell sentiment of the breeding end support the price bottom. However, there is still a back - end supply pressure after the phased pressure eases, and the long - and medium - term over - capacity situation remains. For the 09 contract, beware of further callback risks; for the 01 contract and far - month contracts, consider going long at low prices or adopting the cross - year reverse spread [1][17]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Bean Meal - Market Data: The closing price of the main bean - meal futures contract was 2,990 yuan/ton, down 1.03% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2,943.43 yuan/ton, down 0.67%. The national average soybean - pressing profit was - 173.9096 yuan/ton, down 21.27 yuan/ton [2]. - Inventory Situation: As of July 18, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 7.979 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 252,000 tons; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 6.4224 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 152,500 tons; the bean - meal inventory was 998,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 112,200 tons [3]. Rapeseed Meal - Market Data: The closing price of the main rapeseed - meal futures contract was 2,660 yuan/ton, down 0.56% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2,641.58 yuan/ton, down 0.71%. The national average rapeseed spot - pressing profit was - 620.811 yuan/ton, down 23.32 yuan/ton [4]. - Inventory Situation: As of July 18, the coastal area's main oil - mill rapeseed inventory was 162,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,000 tons; the rapeseed - meal inventory was 12,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3,100 tons; the unexecuted contracts were 76,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 17,000 tons [4]. Palm Oil - Market Data: The closing price of the main palm - oil futures contract was 8,946 yuan/ton, up 0.11% from the previous day. The national average price was 8,993 yuan/ton, down 0.35%. The weekly commercial inventory was 615,500 tons, an increase of 24,100 tons [6]. - Market Sentiment: The proportion of those bullish on palm oil increased from 53% to 76% week - on - week, the proportion of those neutral decreased from 29% to 24%, and the proportion of those bearish decreased from 18% to 0 [6]. Cotton - Market Data: The closing price of the main Zhengzhou cotton futures contract CF2509 was 14,075 yuan/ton, down 0.67% from the previous day. The domestic spot price remained stable at 15,558 yuan/ton. The spinning profit of textile enterprises was - 1,496.70 yuan/ton, an increase of 99 yuan/ton [8]. - Supply and Demand Situation: In the international market, the non - drought rate of US cotton areas decreased by 4% to 89%, and the excellent - good rate decreased by 2% to 55%. In India, the sown cotton area increased by 7% year - on - year. In Brazil, the new - cotton harvest progress reached 16.7%. In the domestic market, the national average yield per unit is expected to increase by 2.5% year - on - year, and the output is expected to exceed 7.4 million tons. The industrial and commercial inventory of domestic cotton decreased by 151,900 tons to 3.1626 million tons [9][10]. Red Dates - Market Data: The closing price of the main red - date futures contract CJ2601 was 10,695 yuan/ton, up 2.39% from the previous day. The physical inventory of 36 sample points was 10,090 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 230 tons [12]. - Production Situation: The new - season jujube trees are growing well, and the yield is expected to be slightly lower than normal (less than 10% reduction), lower than the previous expectation [13]. Live Pigs - Market Data: The closing price of the main live - pig futures contract Lh2509 was 14,125 yuan/ton, down 2.15% from the previous day. The domestic live - pig spot price remained stable at 14,810 yuan/ton. The national sample - enterprise live - pig存栏量 increased by 11,520 to 3.71993 million, and the出栏量 increased by 167,700 to 1.12559 million [15]. - Supply and Demand Situation: In the short term, the average weight of live pigs has bottomed out and rebounded, and the price is supported by the pressure - holding and reluctant - to - sell sentiment. In the medium term, the number of new - born piglets from January to May 2025 increased, indicating potential growth in the second - half - year出栏量. In the long term, the policy - driven elimination of backward production capacity has limited coverage, and the industry has not yet entered the stage of full - scale loss and capacity elimination [16].