宁证期货今日早评-20250729

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides short - term evaluations and outlooks for various commodities including纯碱, crude oil, short - term and long - term national bonds, silver, etc. It offers trading suggestions such as waiting and seeing, short - term selling, or paying attention to certain market indicators for each commodity [1][2][4]. Itemized Summaries Non - Metal Chemicals - 纯碱: The national mainstream price of heavy - quality soda ash is 1315.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton. Weekly production is 72.38 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.28%. Total inventory of soda ash manufacturers is 186.46 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.15%. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with resistance at 1340. It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell in the short - term [1]. Energy - Crude Oil: OPEC+ maintains its stance on increasing production, but actual output release is slow. Trump's remarks on Russia have pushed up overnight crude oil prices. It is advisable to wait and see [2]. - Asphalt: The overall supply - demand situation is weak. The plant operating rate has declined this week, and terminal demand is affected by rainfall and funds. It will still follow the trend of crude oil and be traded with an oscillatory mindset [10]. Bonds - Short - term National Bonds: The money market interest rates have mostly declined, indicating a loosening of the capital side, which is favorable for the bond market. However, the bond market is still affected by the stock - bond seesaw. The short - term upward momentum of the stock market has weakened, which may be favorable for the bond market [4]. - Long - term National Bonds: Sino - US trade talks are ongoing, and the market expects a stable agreement. Policy factors are unfavorable for the bond market. The main logical line of the bond market is not clear, and attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw [4]. Precious Metals - Silver: The market expects the Fed to maintain the benchmark interest rate. It is in the expected market of the July Fed interest - rate meeting. The judgment of high - level oscillation with a slightly bearish bias is maintained [5]. - Gold: US tariff disturbances still exist, but the market focus has shifted. The upward momentum of the US dollar index is insufficient, which is favorable for gold. Gold is still oscillating with a bearish bias but may rebound in the short - term [6]. Agricultural Products - Pork: The wholesale price of pork has decreased. Near the end of the month, the supply is greater than demand, and the sales pressure of the breeding side has increased. It is recommended to short - sell at an appropriate time [5]. - Palm Oil: The production in Malaysia has increased, and exports have decreased. The domestic basis has decreased, and terminal demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate weakly at a high level in the short - term, and short - selling is recommended [6]. - Soybean Meal: The news of reducing pig production and promoting soybean meal substitutes in feed has put pressure on the market. The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills is high, and the short - term M09 may oscillate weakly [7]. Plastics - Plastic: The mainstream price of North China LLDPE is 7336 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22 yuan/ton. Weekly production is 26.96 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.98%. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with resistance at 7400. It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rebounds [8]. Chemicals - Methanol: The market price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 88 yuan/ton. Port inventory has decreased, and production enterprise inventory has also decreased. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with resistance at 2440. It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell in the short - term [9]. - PX: The supply - demand situation of PX has improved marginally. The tight spot situation has eased. Affected by the overall correction of the commodity market and the weakening of cost support, the futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [12]. Ferrous Metals - Manganese Silicon: The production of finished products is stable at a high level, and downstream demand is resilient. However, manufacturers' resumption of production is advancing, and the supply - demand relationship may gradually become loose. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate, and the upside space in the long - term should be viewed with caution [12]. - Coke: Some steel mills in Hebei and Tianjin have raised the price of coke. The overall supply - demand pattern remains unchanged. After the short - term release of market sentiment, the coke futures will have a phased correction [13]. Building Materials - Rebar: The steel market has declined. After the "double - coke" futures limit - down, the market sentiment of speculation has cooled, and the steel price has followed the decline [13].