长江期货市场交易指引-20250729

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: Index - defensive waiting; Treasury bonds - take profit, expect a weakening trend [6] - Black Building Materials: Rebar - wait and see; Iron ore - expect a strong - side oscillation; Coking coal and coke - expect an oscillatory trend [8][9][10] - Non - ferrous Metals: Copper - range trading or wait and see; Aluminum - mainly wait and see; Nickel - short on rallies; Tin - range trading; Gold - range trading; Silver - range trading [13][14][17] - Energy and Chemicals: PVC - expect an oscillatory trend; Soda ash - try short positions with light positions; Caustic soda - expect an oscillatory trend; Styrene - expect an oscillatory trend; Rubber - expect a strong - side oscillation; Urea - expect an oscillatory trend; Methanol - expect an oscillatory trend; Polyolefins - expect a wide - range oscillation [21][23][25] - Cotton Spinning Industry Chain: Cotton and cotton yarn - expect a strong - side oscillation; Apples - expect a strong - side oscillation; Jujubes - expect a strong - side oscillation [33][34][35] - Agricultural and Livestock: Pigs - short on rallies; Eggs - short on rallies; Corn - wide - range oscillation; Soybean meal - expect a strong - side oscillation; Oils - expect a strong - side oscillation [37][39][42] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides investment strategies and market outlooks for various futures products based on current market conditions, including macro - economic events, supply - demand relationships, and policy expectations. Different futures sectors are expected to have different trends, with some in an oscillatory state, some showing a strong - side or weak - side trend, and investors are advised to make corresponding trading decisions according to different situations [6][8][13] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - Index: Affected by factors such as the US Treasury's borrowing plan, bond auctions, Sino - US economic and trade talks, and domestic policies, the index is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see defensively [6] - Treasury Bonds: Although the bond market rebounded on Monday, the market is still in the paradigm of "trading bonds based on commodities" and "trading bonds based on stocks". Attention should be paid to whether subsequent policies can boost demand. It is recommended to take profit, and the market is expected to weaken [6] Black Building Materials - Rebar: After the price drop on Monday, the supply - demand relationship is relatively balanced. Considering macro - policies and industrial supply - demand, it is expected to enter an oscillatory pattern, and it is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term trading [8] - Iron Ore: Affected by macro - policies and supply - demand, the price has adjusted downward. Although there are concerns about future supply surplus, the current support from the steel and coal markets is still strong, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level [8][9] - Coking Coal and Coke: The coking coal market has a slow supply recovery and cautious demand. The coke market has a tight supply - demand balance. Both are expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see neutrally [10][12] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Affected by factors such as US tariff policies, domestic consumption seasons, and economic recovery expectations, the price is expected to oscillate in a range, and it is recommended to conduct range trading or wait and see [13] - Aluminum: Due to changes in the price and supply of bauxite, the production capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum, and the weakening of downstream demand, the price is expected to oscillate at a high level, and it is recommended to wait and see [14] - Nickel: With an oversupply in the long - term and weakening support at the mine end, it is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to short on rallies [17] - Tin: Although the supply - demand gap is improving, the demand is in the off - season. It is expected to have support and is recommended for range trading [19] - Gold and Silver: Affected by trade negotiations, economic data, and interest rate expectations, the prices are expected to oscillate, and it is recommended for range trading [19][20] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: With high supply, uncertain export sustainability, and policy - driven market, it is expected to oscillate in the short - term [21][23] - Caustic Soda: The supply is high, and the demand has rigid support but a slow growth rate. The near - month contract is under pressure, and the far - month contract may have support in the peak season. It is expected to oscillate [24][25] - Styrene: The fundamental benefits are limited, and the macro - environment is favorable. It is expected to oscillate [26] - Rubber: Affected by raw material prices, inventory, and macro - emotions, the price is expected to oscillate strongly after a short - term decline [27][28] - Urea: The supply is decreasing, the demand is increasing, and the inventory pattern is neutral. It is expected to be weak first and then strong [29] - Methanol: The supply is increasing slightly, the demand is stable, and the inventory is decreasing. It is expected to face a certain correction [30] - Polyolefins: Affected by macro - emotions and cost factors, the demand is in the off - season. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and attention should be paid to the price range of different contracts [30][31] - Soda Ash: After the price increase, the inventory has shifted to the middle - stream, and the price is over - estimated. It is recommended to try short positions with light positions [32][33] Cotton Spinning Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: According to the USDA report, the supply - demand relationship has changed. Affected by market sentiment and supply - demand, it is expected to oscillate strongly [33] - Apples: With low inventory, the price is expected to oscillate strongly in a high - level range [34][35] - Jujubes: Affected by the growth situation in the production area and the supply - demand in the sales area, the price is expected to be stable and strong in the short - term [35] Agricultural and Livestock - Pigs: With supply - demand pressure, the short - term is near - weak and far - strong. It is recommended to short the near - month contracts and wait and see for the far - month contracts, and consider arbitrage opportunities [37][38] - Eggs: The short - term supply is affected by high - temperature weather, and the demand may increase seasonally, but the long - term supply pressure is large. It is recommended to short on rallies for the near - month contracts and wait for buying opportunities for the far - month contracts [39][40] - Corn: The short - term supply - demand game is intense, and the mid - long - term supply is tightening. It is recommended for range trading and to pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [41][42] - Soybean Meal: The short - term is affected by weather and supply - demand, and the mid - long - term has a supply gap. It is recommended to go long on dips [43][44] - Oils: Affected by factors such as palm oil production and export, soybean growth, and rapeseed supply, the prices are expected to oscillate strongly, and it is recommended to go long on dips [44][48]