宝城期货煤焦早报-20250729

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term view for both焦煤 and焦炭 is a decline, while the medium - term view is oscillating strongly. The reference view for both is oscillating adjustment. For焦煤, after the release of optimistic sentiment, it experiences a short - term high - level correction, but the long - term fundamentals are expected to improve. For焦炭, after a continuous rise, it has a phased correction [1][5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1品种观点参考 - For焦煤 2509, the short - term is a decline, the medium - term is oscillating strongly, the intraday is a decline, and the reference view is oscillating adjustment due to the phased release of sentiment and subsequent callback [1]. - For焦炭 2509, the short - term is a decline, the medium - term is oscillating strongly, the intraday is a decline, and the reference view is oscillating adjustment because of the cooling of market sentiment and high - level decline [1]. 3.2主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 - 焦煤（JM）: In July, with the release of positive news, the long - term supply - demand pattern of焦煤 has an expectation of improvement, driving the main contract up. But after the rapid price increase, the market fluctuates greatly, and the main contract has a significant callback on Friday night. The "anti - involution rectification" and "over - production rectification" are the main reasons for the rise, but the actual impact of policies needs verification. After the release of optimistic sentiment, the short - term high - level correction occurs. In the long - run, the coal price center is expected to gradually rise [5]. - 焦炭（J）: On the night of July 28, the main contract of焦炭 continued to correct, with a 3.79% decline. After a continuous rise, it has a phased correction. As of July 25, the total daily output of independent coking plants and steel mill coking plants increased by 0.46 tons week - on - week. The profit per ton of 30 independent sample coking plants is - 54 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 11 yuan/ton. The daily output of hot metal of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.21 tons week - on - week, but is 2.62 tons higher than the same period last year. After the strong - expectation - driven rise in July, the short - term correction occurs [6].