国新国证期货早报-20250729

Market Performance Summary - On July 28, A-share market indices rose: Shanghai Composite Index up 0.12% to 3597.94, Shenzhen Component Index up 0.44% to 11217.58, and ChiNext Index up 0.96% to 2362.60. Trading volume reached 1742.3 billion yuan, down 45 billion from Friday [1]. - The CSI 300 index had a narrow - range fluctuation on July 28, closing at 4135.82, up 8.66 [1]. - On July 28, the coke weighted index returned to weakness, closing at 1623.9, down 138.9; the coking coal weighted index fell back after hitting resistance, closing at 1136.8 yuan, down 118.8 [1]. - On July 28, palm oil had a wide - range fluctuation and rebounded from the bottom, with the main contract P2509 closing up 0.11% at 8946 [4]. - On July 28, the iron ore 2509 main contract fell 1.75% to close at 786 yuan [7]. - On July 28, the asphalt 2509 main contract fell 1.05% to close at 3569 yuan [9]. - On July 28, rb2510 closed at 3248 yuan/ton, hc2510 at 3397 yuan/ton, and the average price of 20mm third - grade seismic - resistant rebar in 31 major cities dropped 50 yuan/ton [10]. - On July 28, ao2509 closed at 3427 yuan/ton [10]. - On July 28, al2509 closed at 20615 yuan/ton [11]. - On July 28 night session, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14150 yuan/ton [7]. Industry - Specific Analysis Coal and Coke - The Dalian Commodity Exchange issued a notice on position limits for coking coal futures due to excessive and rapid price increases, which may have overdrawn market bullish factors [2]. - The National Energy Administration's coal production verification notice implies a shift from supply - contraction expectation to reality, bringing significant bullish changes to the coal - coke industry's supply - demand logic [2]. Sugar - Concerns about increased supply led to a decline in US sugar on Friday. Zhengzhou sugar 2509 contract fell on Monday due to factors like large short - term gains and weak US sugar, and rose slightly at night. India may allow sugar exports in the next season, increasing global supply pressure. As of July 22, net short positions of hedge funds and large speculators in raw sugar increased for the first time in three weeks [2]. Rubber - Eased border disputes between Thailand and Cambodia led to a decline in Southeast Asian spot rubber prices. Shanghai rubber fell on Monday and fluctuated at night. As of July 27, inventory in Qingdao ports showed a slight increase, with bonded inventory decreasing and general trade inventory increasing [3][4]. Palm Oil - From July 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased 5.52% month - on - month, with a 6.08% increase in yield and a 0.10% decrease in oil extraction rate [4]. Soybean Meal - International CBOT soybean futures fell on July 28 due to trade uncertainties and slow US soybean export demand. Although the US soybean good - rate dropped to 68%, it's still at a relatively high level. In the domestic market, abundant imported soybeans, high crushing volume, and high inventory pressured soybean meal prices. Future focus is on US soybean weather and import situation [5]. Livestock (Pigs) - On July 28, hog futures prices fell. Currently, the hog market has abundant supply and weak demand. As of the end of June, the national sow inventory was 40.43 million, 103.7% of the normal level. Future focus is on policy regulation, hog slaughter rhythm, and weight [6]. Copper - Shanghai copper prices may maintain a high - level oscillation. Supply is tight due to limited overseas mine output, restricted US recycled copper imports, upcoming domestic smelter maintenance, and potential delays in imported scrap copper. Demand has some resilience due to grid investment growth and emerging sectors like new - energy vehicles [6]. Cotton - On the night of July 28, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14150 yuan/ton. The base price at Xinjiang's designated delivery warehouses was at least 430 yuan/ton, and inventory decreased by 39 lots. Xinjiang cotton has entered the boll - setting stage, one week earlier than last year [7]. Iron Ore - On July 28, the iron ore 2509 main contract fell 1.75%. Last week, Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments decreased slightly, arrivals dropped significantly, port inventory increased slightly, and iron ore demand remained resilient. Short - term prices may oscillate at a high level [7]. Asphalt - In August, asphalt refinery production is expected to decline month - on - month. Affected by rainfall, demand recovery is slower than expected, and short - term prices will fluctuate [9]. Logs - On July 28, the log market faced high - level pressure. Spot prices in Shandong remained unchanged, while those in Jiangsu increased. Attention should be paid to spot prices, import data, and market sentiment [9]. Steel - After the steel price increase last week, steel mill profits improved, leading to increased production enthusiasm. With the accumulation of supply - demand contradictions, there is a risk of price decline. After the "double - coke" futures limit - down on Monday, the market's speculative sentiment cooled, and steel prices also dropped [10]. Alumina - On July 28, alumina futures prices dropped as market bullish sentiment weakened. Supply is in excess as production capacity has reached a new high this year, imports increased, and domestic inventory rose [10]. Aluminum - Domestic electrolytic aluminum production is at a high level, with limited growth potential. Downstream demand is weak during the off - season, with low开工 rates for die - casting, aluminum rods, and profiles, and cold reception from downstream buyers [11].