宝城期货国债期货早报-20250729

Report Overview - Report Name: Baocheng Futures Treasury Bond Futures Morning Report (July 29, 2025) - Report Type: Futures Research Report - Report Author: Long Aoming - Author Department: Baocheng Futures Investment Consulting Department - Author Qualification: F3035632 (从业资格证号), Z0014648 (投资咨询证号) 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term and medium - term view of TL2509 is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias". The overall view is "oscillation". The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is biased towards looseness, but the possibility of short - term interest rate cuts is low [1]. - For the main varieties (TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". Previously, due to the easing of domestic and foreign risk factors and the rapid rise in stock market risk appetite, the demand for treasury bonds was weak, and treasury bond futures were in an oscillatory adjustment. As market interest rates rose rapidly, the anchoring effect of policy rates emerged, and the upward space for treasury bond yields was limited. In the long - term, a loose monetary environment is still needed to support the economy, and there is an expectation of interest rate cuts, so the long - term upward basis for treasury bond futures is relatively solid. In the short - term, the possibility of interest rate cuts is low, and treasury bond futures are expected to maintain an oscillatory consolidation trend [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - TL2509: Short - term: oscillation; Medium - term: oscillation; Intraday: oscillation with a weak bias; Overall view: oscillation. Core logic: The monetary policy environment is biased towards looseness, but the possibility of short - term interest rate cuts is low [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Quotation Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Varieties: TL, T, TF, TS. - Intraday view: Oscillation with a weak bias; Medium - term view: Oscillation; Reference view: Oscillation. - Core logic: Treasury bond futures oscillated and rose yesterday. Previously, due to the easing of domestic and foreign risk factors and the rapid rise in stock market risk appetite, the demand for treasury bonds was weak, and treasury bond futures were in an oscillatory adjustment. As market interest rates rose rapidly, the anchoring effect of policy rates emerged, and the upward space for treasury bond yields was limited. In the long - term, a loose monetary environment is still needed to support the economy, and there is an expectation of interest rate cuts, so the long - term upward basis for treasury bond futures is relatively solid. In the short - term, the possibility of interest rate cuts is low, and treasury bond futures are expected to maintain an oscillatory consolidation trend [5].