农林牧渔行业报告（2025.7.21-2025.7.27）：生猪行业“反内卷”行动再加码

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Viewpoints - The agricultural sector has shown a significant rebound, with the agricultural index rising by 3.62% last week, ranking 9th among 31 primary industries [5][13] - The Ministry of Agriculture has convened major pig farming companies to discuss capacity regulation, which has positively impacted the breeding sector [5][14] - The pig market is experiencing price fluctuations due to supply pressures and weak demand, with the average price of pigs at 14.33 CNY/kg as of July 27, showing a slight decrease of 0.06 CNY/kg from the previous week [6][17] - The white feather chicken market has seen a price rebound, with chick prices rising to 2.30 CNY/chick, an increase of 0.8 CNY/chick from the previous week [26] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural sector index increased by 3.62%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 Index, which rose by 1.67% and 1.69% respectively [13] - The Ministry of Agriculture's meeting with leading pig companies has sparked market interest in pig production capacity regulation [14] 2. Breeding Industry Chain Tracking 2.1 Pigs - The average weight of pigs at market is 128.48 kg, down 0.35 kg from the previous week, indicating a supply surplus [17] - The profitability for self-bred pigs is around 62 CNY per head, down 29 CNY from the previous week, while purchased piglets are facing a loss of 71 CNY per head [18] - The Ministry of Agriculture emphasizes the need for quality development in the pig industry, including reducing the number of breeding sows and controlling slaughter weights [20] 2.2 White Feather Chicken - The average price of meat chickens has increased by 5.31% to 3.37 CNY/kg, driven by reduced supply and improved demand conditions [26] - The update of grandparent stock has decreased significantly, with a 29.62% year-on-year decline in the first half of 2025 [26] 3. Planting Industry Chain Tracking - Sugar prices have slightly decreased to 6075 CNY/ton, while soybean prices have rebounded to 3943 CNY/ton, reflecting a 0.2% increase [29] - Cotton prices have increased by 1.43% to 15585 CNY/ton, and corn prices have risen slightly to 2379 CNY/ton [29]