反内卷主线切换，债市情绪改善

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The main line of "anti - involution" in the stock index futures market is switching. The market has expectations for stimulus policies, and new main lines such as high - prosperity sectors in the semi - annual report and sectors related to demand - side policies are emerging. It is recommended to continue to allocate long positions in IM [3][9]. - In the stock index options market, the volatility has shown an inflection point, and the probability of short - term volatility decline is relatively high. It is advisable to build positions for short - volatility strategies. The certainty of volatility strategies is slightly stronger than that of directional strategies [4][10]. - In the treasury bond futures market, the sentiment has improved, but there are still many short - term disturbing factors, and the market is expected to be volatile [4][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - Market Performance: On Monday, the Shanghai Composite Index rose and then fell, with narrow - range trading and shrinking volume. The market risk preference was at a relatively high level, and the main line showed signs of switching [3][9]. - Reasons for Main - line Switching: Firstly, the China - US tariff negotiation is in progress, and the market has expectations for stimulus policies. Secondly, the "anti - involution" theme has cooled down, and the coal and steel industries in the stock market led the decline on Monday. Thirdly, new main - line directions are emerging, such as high - prosperity sectors in the semi - annual report and sectors related to demand - side policies [3][9]. - Operation Suggestion: Hold long positions in IM with a half - position [9]. 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - Volatility: Last week, the "anti - involution" policy supported the volatility, but this week, the volatility of most varieties showed an inflection point in the morning and closed down in the afternoon. The short - term probability of volatility decline is high [4][10]. - Sentiment Index: Weak liquidity and the expiration of all current - month contracts suggest that trading - type funds are relatively conservative in the short term [4][10]. - Operation Suggestion: Focus on short - volatility strategies in the short term and continue to hold the medium - term covered - call strategy [4][10]. 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - Market Performance: Treasury bond futures rose collectively, and the sentiment in the bond market improved. The T main contract opened higher and then fluctuated [4][10]. - Reasons for Improvement: Firstly, most commodity futures fell, and the speculative sentiment in the market cooled down. Secondly, the central bank's net investment in the open - market operation at the end of the month improved the capital situation. Thirdly, there was an obvious stock - bond seesaw effect in the intraday trading [4][10][12]. - Short - term Outlook: There are still many disturbing factors in the bond market, and it is expected to be volatile in the short term [4][12]. - Operation Suggestion: Be cautious in trend strategies, pay attention to short - hedging at low basis levels, appropriately focus on the basis convergence of the TL main contract, and the odds of steepening the curve in the medium term are higher [12]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - The economic indicators to be announced this week include the US July ADP employment number, the US Federal Reserve interest rate decision, and China's July official manufacturing PMI [14]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - Industry: The National Conference of Heads of Industry and Information Technology Departments proposed to implement the strategy of expanding domestic demand, consolidate the industrial economy, and promote the development of emerging technologies [14]. - Parenting Subsidy: The national parenting subsidy system implementation plan was announced, providing subsidies for infants under 3 years old [15]. - Trade Talks: China hopes to promote the stable and healthy development of China - US economic and trade relations through dialogue and cooperation [15]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions to monitor data on stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but specific data is not provided in the summary part.