螺纹钢：板块行情共振，偏弱震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core View of the Report - The steel market, including rebar and hot-rolled coil, shows a pattern of sectoral market resonance with a weak and volatile trend [2][3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: For RB2510, the closing price was 3,248 yuan/ton, down 68 yuan/ton (-2.05%); the trading volume was 3,414,713 lots, the position was 1,935,881 lots, down 62,771 lots. For HC2510, the closing price was 3,397 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton (-2.30%); the trading volume was 1,255,676 lots, the position was 1,481,167 lots, down 73,396 lots [3]. - Spot Price: Rebar prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Beijing, and Guangzhou decreased by 40 - 60 yuan/ton. Hot-rolled coil prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Tianjin, and Guangzhou decreased by 60 - 70 yuan/ton. The price of Tangshan steel billet decreased by 40 yuan/ton [3]. - Basis and Spread: The basis of RB2510 increased by 68 yuan/ton to 142 yuan/ton, and the basis of HC2510 increased by 50 yuan/ton to 43 yuan/ton. The spreads between different contracts also changed, such as RB2510 - RB2601 increasing by 2 to -41 [3]. 2. Macro and Industry News - Steel Output and Inventory: On July 24, according to Steel Union weekly data, rebar output increased by 2.9 tons, hot-rolled coil output decreased by 3.65 tons, and the total output of five major steel products decreased by 1.22 tons. Rebar inventory decreased by 4.62 tons, hot-rolled coil inventory increased by 2.25 tons, and the total inventory of five major steel products decreased by 1.16 tons. Rebar apparent demand increased by 10.41 tons, hot-rolled coil apparent demand decreased by 8.55 tons, and the total apparent demand of five major steel products decreased by 1.98 tons [4]. - Key Steel Enterprises' Production: In mid-July 2025, key steel enterprises produced 2141 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 214.1 million tons (a 2.1% daily increase), 1944 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 194.4 million tons (a 0.6% daily increase), and 2080 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 208.0 million tons (a 4.6% daily increase) [5]. - Policy News: On July 24, the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued a public consultation on the draft amendment to the Price Law of the People's Republic of China, aiming to clarify the criteria for identifying unfair price behavior [5]. 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of rebar and hot-rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral trend [5].