工业硅：关注今日情绪变化情况，多晶硅：关注今日市场信息-20250729

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on the fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon, including price, profit, inventory, and raw material cost data. It also mentions the negative growth forecast of the EU solar market in 2025, which poses risks to the 2030 target [3][4]. - The trend strength of industrial silicon is 0 (neutral), and that of polysilicon is 1 (slightly bullish) [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - Futures Market: Si2509's closing price was 8,915 yuan/ton, down 810 yuan from T - 1; PS2509's closing price was 49,405 yuan/ton, down 1,620 yuan from T - 1 [3]. - Basis: Industrial silicon's spot premium/discount varied against different benchmarks, and polysilicon's spot premium/discount (against N - type re - investment) was - 4,525 yuan [3]. - Price: The price of East China oxygen - passing Si5530 was 10,100 yuan/ton, and the price of polysilicon - N - type re - investment material was 46,500 yuan/ton [3]. - Profit: Silicon factory profits in Xinjiang and Yunnan were negative, and polysilicon enterprise profit was - 17.9 yuan/kg [3]. - Inventory: Industrial silicon's social inventory was 53.5 million tons, and polysilicon's factory inventory was 24.3 million tons [3]. - Raw Material Cost: The prices of various raw materials such as silicon ore, washed coal, and electrodes showed different changes [3]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The EU solar market is expected to have a - 1.4% annual growth rate in 2025, with an expected new solar installation of 64.2 GW, lower than 2024. The 2030 target may not be achieved, with an expected total solar PV installation of 723 GW, lower than the required 750 GW [4][5]. 3.3 Trend Strength - Industrial silicon's trend strength is 0 (neutral), and polysilicon's trend strength is 1 (slightly bullish) [5].