Report Industry Investment Rating - The report assigns an overall "oscillating" rating to the black building materials sector [6][8][9] Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the black market rose to a high level driven by macro factors, the market became extremely sensitive. Following the exchange's position - limit notice last Friday, the market sentiment took a sharp turn overnight, with coking coal hitting the daily limit. As the outcome of important meetings remains uncertain, funds tend to take a risk - averse approach. The fundamental situation in the industry has changed little, and no obvious turnaround has been observed in the terminal sector. After a large - scale replenishment in the middle reaches, a continuous price decline may lead to significant sales by traders, amplifying the bearish sentiment. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see strategy, and in the long term, the overall trading should be bearish as the focus returns to the fundamentals [1][2] - The volatility of the black market has increased recently, and there may still be macro - level disturbances in the future. The key factors to watch are the implementation of policies and the performance of terminal demand [6] Summary by Directory Iron Element - Overseas mine shipments have increased on a month - on - month basis, while the arrivals at 45 ports have decreased as expected. On the demand side, the profitability rate of steel enterprises has increased significantly, and the molten iron output has slightly decreased but remains at a high level year - on - year, supporting the demand for iron ore. Due to low arrivals and high demand, the inventory at 45 ports of iron ore has slightly decreased. With high demand and stable supply, there is limited bearish driving force in the fundamentals of iron ore. However, as the short - term macro - level positive factors have been mostly priced in, the price is expected to oscillate [2] Carbon Element - After the exchange adjusted the trading limit of the JM2509 contract last Friday, the market sentiment quickly cooled down, and the coking coal futures hit the daily limit across the board. There are still disruptions in production at the origin, and the overall supply is slowly recovering. The average daily customs clearance of Mongolian coal has been above 1,000 trucks in recent days, remaining at a high level. Affected by the sharp decline in the futures market, the downstream and traders have become more cautious, and the auction results have been mediocre. After three rounds of price increases for coke, the coking profit is still under pressure. Coke producers in the main producing areas initiated a fourth - round price increase over the weekend. Given the current tight supply - demand structure of coke and the pressure on coking profit, the fourth - round price increase is expected to be implemented soon. The futures market is expected to oscillate widely in the short term [3] Alloys - Affected by the decline in coking coal futures, the manganese - silicon futures opened with a downward gap and oscillated widely. In the spot market, there is strong wait - and - see sentiment at the beginning of the week. With the futures market remaining at a high level, the spot prices remain firm. As coke enters the price - increase cycle, the cost support for manganese - silicon is continuously strengthening. Manganese ore traders at ports are more inclined to hold prices, and low - priced supplies are scarce, with the ore prices remaining stable overall. The output of ferrosilicon is expected to increase rapidly, and the downstream steel - making demand remains resilient. The current supply - demand relationship of ferrosilicon is relatively healthy, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term, following the performance of the sector [3][6] Glass - After the glass futures hit the daily limit, the market sentiment weakened rapidly, and the production - sales ratio dropped significantly. On the supply side, there are still two production lines waiting to produce glass, and one production line has been shut down for cold repair. The overall daily melting volume is expected to remain stable. The upstream inventory has slightly decreased, and there are no prominent internal contradictions, but there are many market - sentiment disturbances. Recently, the "anti - involution" sentiment has cooled down, and the market's pessimistic expectations for the supply - demand fundamentals have returned. However, as the Politburo meeting is approaching, the "anti - involution" sentiment may fluctuate. In the short term, both the futures and spot markets are expected to oscillate widely. The long - term over - supply situation of soda ash is difficult to change. In the short term, the rising "anti - involution" sentiment has driven up the futures price. After the positive feedback, the inventory locked in the positive spread is large, and the delivery pressure is high. In the short term, it is easy to rise but difficult to fall, while in the long term, the price center will still decline [6] Individual Product Analysis - Steel: After the exchange adjusted the coking coal trading limit, the market sentiment cooled down, and the futures prices fell from a high level. The spot trading volume of steel was generally weak, with only a small amount of speculative and rigid - demand purchases at low prices. Last week, the supply and demand of rebar both increased, and the inventory decreased on a month - on - month basis; the supply and demand of hot - rolled coils both decreased, and the inventory slightly accumulated; the supply and demand of the five major steel products both decreased, and the inventory slightly decreased. The inventory is at a relatively low level compared to previous years, and the fundamental contradictions in the off - season are not obvious. In the future, there is still an expectation of inventory accumulation for steel, but due to the low inventory level, the fundamental pressure is limited. The futures prices are easily affected by market sentiment and are expected to oscillate widely in the short term [8] - Iron Ore: The arrivals at ports have decreased on a month - on - month basis, and the port inventory has slightly decreased. The overseas mine shipments have increased on a month - on - month basis, while the arrivals at 45 ports have decreased as expected. On the demand side, the profitability rate of steel enterprises has increased significantly, and the molten iron output has slightly decreased but remains at a high level year - on - year, supporting the demand for iron ore. With high demand and stable supply, there is limited bearish driving force in the fundamentals of iron ore. However, as the short - term macro - level positive factors have been mostly priced in, the price is expected to oscillate [8][9] - Scrap Steel: The arrival volume has significantly increased, and the spot price has risen. The fundamentals of scrap steel are acceptable, with an increase in rebar production, a decrease in inventory, and an increase in apparent demand this week. On the supply side, the arrival volume has increased significantly. On the demand side, the profits of electric arc furnaces during off - peak hours have improved, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in both long - and short - process steelmaking has increased. The inventory in steel mills has slightly decreased. The demand for scrap steel is at a high level, and there are no prominent fundamental contradictions. After Shagang raised its price, the spot price has followed suit. However, as the steel price has declined, scrap steel itself lacks upward - driving force and is expected to oscillate [9] - Coke: The spot market has initiated a fourth - round price increase, and the futures followed coking coal to hit the daily limit. After three rounds of price increases, the coking profit is still under pressure, and coke producers in the main producing areas initiated a fourth - round price increase over the weekend. Meanwhile, the supply of coke is still affected by environmental protection and maintenance. On the demand side, although the molten iron output has slightly decreased on a month - on - month basis, it remains at a high level, and there is still rigid demand. The downstream steel mills have good profits, high production enthusiasm, and are actively replenishing inventory. The inventory of coke producers has continuously decreased. The current supply - demand structure of coke is tight, and the fourth - round price increase is expected to be implemented soon. The futures market is expected to oscillate widely in the short term [10] - Coking Coal: There are continuous disturbances in coal mine supply, and the market enthusiasm remains high. In the futures market, there are strong expectations for the coal supply - side reform, and the positive market sentiment persists. In the spot market, the prices of coking coal have increased. On the supply side, there are still disruptions in production at the origin, and the supply is still restricted. The average daily customs clearance of Mongolian coal has been around 1,000 trucks in recent days, and the port transactions are good. On the demand side, the coke output is temporarily stable, and the rigid demand for coking coal is strong. Recently, downstream enterprises and traders have been actively purchasing, resulting in a significant reduction in coal mine inventory. Currently, the fundamental supply - demand contradictions are not prominent, and the key factors to watch are regulatory policies, coal mine复产, and Mongolian coal imports. In the short term, coking coal still has upward potential due to market sentiment [11] - Glass: The speculative sentiment has declined, and the inventory in the middle reaches has significantly increased. The demand in the off - season has decreased, and the orders of deep - processing enterprises have declined on a month - on - month basis. After the futures hit the daily limit, the market sentiment weakened rapidly, and the production - sales ratio dropped significantly. On the supply side, the overall daily melting volume is expected to remain stable. The upstream inventory has slightly decreased, and there are no prominent internal contradictions, but there are many market - sentiment disturbances. Recently, the "anti - involution" sentiment has cooled down, and the market's pessimistic expectations for the supply - demand fundamentals have returned. However, as the Politburo meeting is approaching, the "anti - involution" sentiment may fluctuate. In the short term, both the futures and spot markets are expected to oscillate widely. In the long term, if the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to oscillate downward [13] - Soda Ash: The market sentiment has weakened, and the futures and spot prices have rapidly declined. The supply capacity has not been cleared, and there is still long - term pressure. Although the production has decreased due to a pipeline problem at Jinshan No. 3 Plant today, the supply pressure still exists. On the demand side, the demand for heavy soda ash is expected to remain at a rigid - purchase level, and the demand has weakened. The downstream procurement of light soda ash has recovered, but the overall demand in the downstream is poor, mainly for periodic inventory replenishment. The long - term over - supply situation is difficult to change. In the short term, the rising "anti - involution" sentiment has driven up the futures price. After the positive feedback, the inventory in the middle reaches is high, and most of it is locked in the futures market, resulting in large delivery pressure. In July, there are planned maintenance activities, and with the support of the "anti - involution" sentiment, it is expected to be easy to rise but difficult to fall in the short term, while in the long term, the price center will still decline to promote capacity reduction [14] - Silicon Manganese: The market sentiment has cooled down, and the futures opened with a downward gap and oscillated. Affected by the decline in coking coal futures, the manganese - silicon futures opened with a downward gap and oscillated widely. In the spot market, there is strong wait - and - see sentiment at the beginning of the week. With the futures market remaining at a high level, the spot prices remain firm. As coke enters the price - increase cycle, the cost support for manganese - silicon is continuously strengthening. Manganese ore traders at ports are more inclined to hold prices, and low - priced supplies are scarce, with the ore prices remaining stable overall. The downstream demand for manganese - silicon remains resilient, but as the profit - repair environment promotes the resumption of production by manufacturers, the supply - demand relationship may gradually become looser. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, following the performance of the sector, and the upside potential in the long term should be viewed with caution [16] - Ferrosilicon: The bullish sentiment has cooled down, and the futures opened with a downward gap and oscillated. Affected by the decline in coking coal futures, the ferrosilicon futures opened with a downward gap and oscillated widely. In the spot market, the overall sentiment is acceptable, but the downstream's acceptance of high - priced resources is limited. On the supply side, the industry's profit has improved significantly, and manufacturers are more motivated to resume production, so the output is expected to increase rapidly. On the demand side, the steel output remains at a relatively high level, and the downstream steel - making demand remains resilient. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, following the performance of the sector. However, the supply - demand gap may narrow in the future, and the upside potential in the long term should be viewed with caution [17]
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Zhong Xin Qi Huo·2025-07-29 02:01