棉花：高基差和供应偏紧担忧继续支撑期价

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report High basis and concerns about tight supply continue to support the cotton futures price. The cotton spot trading has slightly improved, the inventory of cotton spinning enterprises has slightly decreased, but the orders for grey cloth are still weak, and the ICE cotton futures are fluctuating narrowly with a slight decline in the good - quality rate of US cotton [1][2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: CF2509 closed at 14,075 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily decline of 0.67%, and the night - session closed at 14,150 yuan/ton with a 0.53% increase; CY2509 closed at 20,235 yuan/ton yesterday with a 0.66% decline, and the night - session closed at 20,280 yuan/ton with a 0.22% increase; ICE US cotton 12 closed at 68.3 cents/pound with a 0.10% increase. The trading volume of CF2509 was 666,728 lots, an increase of 230,035 lots compared with the previous day, and the position was 866,475 lots, a decrease of 21,810 lots. The trading volume of CY2509 was 14,576 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the position was 9,411 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - Warehouse Receipt Data: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 9,226, a decrease of 39, and the effective forecast was 350, unchanged. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 91, a decrease of 5, and the effective forecast was 0, an increase of 96 [1]. - Spot Price Data: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,382 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan or 0.58% compared with the previous day; the price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,060 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan or 0.59%. The price in Shandong was 15,610 yuan/ton, an increase of 81 yuan or 0.52%; the price in Hebei was 15,589 yuan/ton, an increase of 51 yuan or 0.33%. The 3128B index was 15,609 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan or 0.39%. The international cotton index M was 75.80 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.62%. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32s was 20,780 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan or 0.19%, and the arrival price was 22,092 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan or 0.07% [1]. - Spread Data: The CF9 - 1 spread decreased by 45 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, and the spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 increased by 10 yuan/ton [1]. Macro and Industry News - Domestic Cotton Spot: The cotton spot trading has slightly improved, the delivery of old cotton is relatively good, and the basis quotes of some cotton enterprises have slightly decreased, but the overall basis is still stable. The mainstream sales basis of 2024/25 North and South Xinjiang machine - picked 3129/29 - 30B with impurity within 3.5 is CF09 + 1300 - 1600, and the Corps' goods are quoted at 1600 - 1750 for inland self - pick - up [2]. - Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises: The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market is average, with downstream rigid - demand procurement as the main mode, and traders have a small amount of restocking. The inventory of spinning enterprises has slightly decreased. The orders for grey cloth are still weak, mainly small rigid - demand orders. Traditionally, market sampling orders will appear around the end of July and early August, but textile mills are more cautious this year, so they mainly purchase small orders of cotton yarn [2]. - US Cotton: The ICE cotton futures fluctuated narrowly yesterday, and the market still lacks fundamental guidance. The US Department of Agriculture's weekly crop growth report showed that the good - quality rate of US cotton slightly decreased. As of the week of July 27, the good - quality rate of US cotton was 55%, compared with 57% in the previous week and 49% in the same period last year [2]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend, with the value ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4].