Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral stance. The range of trend strength is an integer within the [-2, 2] interval, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [2] 2. Core View - The current situation is strong in reality but weak in expectation, with a trend of reverse arbitrage. Due to the current consumption off - season, limited downstream digestion capacity, increased selling intention of some retail farmers, the spot price has dropped rapidly. The market expects a price increase from late July to early August, which may lead to more concentrated slaughter. The spot will continue to be weak. The macro - sentiment has strong support for the far - end, and the spread structure has switched to reverse arbitrage. Pay attention to setting stop - loss and take - profit points. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Spot Prices: The Henan spot price is 14,080 yuan/ton, the Sichuan spot price is 13,550 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the Guangdong spot price is 15,440 yuan/ton (unchanged year - on - year) [1] - Futures Prices: The price of the生猪2509 contract is 14,125 yuan/ton (down 260 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the price of the生猪2511 contract is 14,250 yuan/ton (down 135 yuan/ton year - on - year) [1] 3.2 Market Logic - In the short term, due to the consumption off - season, limited downstream digestion capacity, increased selling intention of some retail farmers, the spot price has dropped rapidly. The market expects a price increase from late July to early August, which may lead to more concentrated slaughter and continued weakness in the spot. The macro - sentiment has strong support for the far - end, and the spread structure has switched to reverse arbitrage. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Futures Trading Data - Volume and Open Interest: For the生猪2509 contract, the trading volume is 63,935 lots (an increase of 6,892 lots from the previous day), and the open interest is 61,415 lots (a decrease of 881 lots from the previous day). For the生猪2511 contract, the trading volume is 24,447 lots (an increase of 1,370 lots from the previous day), and the open interest is 49,491 lots (a decrease of 571 lots from the previous day). For the生猪2601 contract, the trading volume is 28,297 lots (an increase of 3,652 lots from the previous day), and the open interest is 43,340 lots (an increase of 1,837 lots from the previous day) [4] - Basis and Spread: The basis and spread data of different contracts are provided, such as the生猪2509 basis,生猪2511 basis,生猪2601 basis,生猪9 - 11 spread, and生猪11 - 1 spread, along with their year - on - year changes [4]
生猪：强现实弱预期，趋势反套
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-07-29 01:58